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Yashili Holdings, the Chinese infant formula maker part-owned by Danone, has warned full-year profits will fall by almost half, sending jitters through other strategic and financial investors who piled into China’s once-booming dairy industry.
达能(Danone)部分持股的中国婴儿配方奶粉生产商雅士利控股(Yashili Holdings)警告全年盈利将下降近一半，这个消息给当初竞相进军中国繁荣的乳制品行业的战略和金融投资者带来紧张。
The soured outlook for a commodity once dubbed “white gold” comes on the back of crashing international prices that have led to farmers across northern China slaughtering cows and dumping milk.
乳制品一度被称为“白色金子”，但其前景因为国际市场价格崩盘而恶化，导致整个华北的农民纷纷屠宰奶牛和倒掉牛奶。
China is by far the world’s largest buyer of fresh milk and powder, after Russia banned imports of fresh milk and cheese from Europe. The ban contributed to a glut of supply in international markets that has sent milk prices plummeting since the summer.
在俄罗斯禁止从欧洲进口鲜牛奶和奶酪后，中国是全球遥遥领先的最大鲜牛奶和奶粉买家。俄罗斯的禁令加剧了国际市场的供过于求，导致牛奶价格从去年夏天开始大幅下降。
That has been bad news for Chinese dairy farmers and consumer brands alike.
这对中国奶农和消费者品牌是坏消息。
Yashili, a formula maker based in southern China controlled by Mengniu, China’s largest dairy firm, warned yesterday that its profits for 2014 would fall 40 per cent due to increased competition and a shake-up in its distribution channels. In response investors sent its Hong Kong-listed shares down as much as 6 per cent before the stock reversed to end the day up 0.9 per cent.
总部设在华南的雅士利由中国最大乳品公司蒙牛(Mengniu)控股。雅士利昨日警告称，其2014年利润将下降40%，原因是竞争加剧和分销渠道重组。消息传出后，该公司在香港上市的股票一度下跌6%，但随后止跌反弹，全日上涨0.9%。
Four months ago, French yoghurt maker Danone agreed to take a 25 per cent stake in Yashili for $550m, part of its efforts to increase its footprint in China’s growing dairy products market. Danone also is a shareholder in Mengniu, which is controlled by state-owned grains and food conglomerate Cofco.
4个月前，法国酸奶生产商达能同意以5.5亿美元购得雅士利25%的股份，这是达能寻求在中国不断增长的乳制品市场扩大足迹的计划的一部分。达能也是蒙牛的股东之一，蒙牛由国有的粮食及食品巨擘中粮集团(Cofco)控股。
With imported milk powder now so cheap, Chinese processors are remixing it to sell as liquid milk, driving down margins and further eroding demand for domestically produced fresh milk. Beijing is expected to issue regulations to curb the practice.
由于进口奶粉如今很便宜，中国的加工企业利用其为原料，制成液态奶销售，此举压低了利润率，并进一步削弱了市场对国内生产的鲜牛奶的需求。北京方面预计将发布法规，遏制这种做法。
The larger problem for China’s dairy investors is that their cost of production is as much as twice as expensive as that of farms in US, New Zealand or Argentina. Also, many inexperienced investors have not calculated the cost of high-quality, imported feed into their operational models, meaning the milk they do produce tends to be of lower quality.
对中国乳业投资者来说，更大的问题是，中国企业的生产成本两倍于美国、新西兰和阿根廷的农场。还有，许多没有经验的投资者未曾在自己的运营模型中计算优质进口原料的成本，这意味着他们生产的牛奶往往质量较低。
“The end result is they are losing money,” says Shi Tao, a Shanghai-based analyst with agricultural consultancy eFeedlink.
“最终结果是他们在赔钱，”农业咨询公司益农国际(eFeedlink)常驻上海的分析师施涛表示。
