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“With such amazing and innovative products, strong executive team and labor force, loyal customer base, significant capacity for debt, $109 billion of cash in marketable securities, it is surprising that Tim Cook has not already initiated a leveraged management buyout of the company.”
“苹果公司有着绝佳的创新性产品、强有力的高管团队和劳动力、忠诚的客户群以及超强的负债能力，同时还坐拥价值1090亿美元的畅销有价证券。这么好的条件，蒂姆o库克竟然还没有启动对苹果的管理层杠杆收购，真是令人吃惊。”
So writes Marwaan Karame of IDG Capital Group in a provocative Seeking Alpha article backed with eleven spreadsheets, seven graphs and two Monte Carlo simulations.
在给美国财经资讯网站Seeking Alpha撰写的一篇挑衅性文章中，IDG Capital Group的玛万o喀拉密写下了上面这段话。喀拉密在文中用了11个电子表格、7个图表和两个统计试验法模拟来佐证自己的观点。
You can read his analysis at Apple’s Leveraged Management Buyout Potential. But don’t miss the lively back and forth in the comment stream.
各位可以在《苹果公司管理层杠杆收购的潜在可能》（Apple’s Leveraged Management Buyout Potential）一文中看到喀拉密的分析。但是，千万别错过评论区精彩的唇枪舌战。
A sample:
部分神回复摘录如下：
– alistairt: One of the best examples I’ve seen to date of someone mindlessly applying a LBO model without consideration of the underlying business reality.
- alistairt：这是我迄今见过的生搬硬套杠杆收购模型，而丝毫不考虑根本商业现实的最好例子。
– relayer75: Not going to happen. The largest LBO in history was RJR Nabisco, at $31 billion. This would be 18x that amount.
- relayer75：根本不可能。历史上最大的杠杆收购案例是美国雷诺兹-纳贝斯克公司（RJR Nabisco），收购价为310亿美元。假如苹果被收购，规模将是雷诺兹-纳贝斯克收购案的18倍。
– rroo: Cook is a level-headed guy, more like Gates or Buffet. LBO (money and power) are for those infected with megalomania.
- rroo：库克头脑冷静，这一点有些像盖茨或巴菲特。而只有自大狂才会对杠杆收购（金钱和权力）念念不忘。
– rsbduff: This is the same attitude that has ruined many a company. They buy them…load them up with debt…rape them…then dump them on stupid investors…once again
- rsbduff：这种态度已经毁掉了许多公司。他们将公司买下来……欠下一屁股债……把公司搜刮的干干净净……然后又让傻呼呼的投资者来接盘
– Timmiesregular: There are some benefits to being public — especially if you are profitable. Going private is only done when the company needs to be out of the public eye – like Dell.
- Timmiesregular：上市公司能享受到不少好处——特别是如果公司盈利的话更是如此。公司私有化通常是公司需要淡出公众视线时的权宜之计，戴尔就是一个很好的例子。
– Hank890: An AAPL LBO would be a major GIFT to any I-bank tasked with handling it. But it is not clear that the customers or employees would get much out of it. Just because an LBO is possible does not mean it is advisable.
- Hank890：如果苹果被杠杆收购，那负责这笔交易的投行就赚大了。但客户或公司员工不见得有太大的好处。杠杆收购有可能不代表就是明智之举。
– wdchil: An LBO might have almost have made sense when Apple was below $400 but it certainly doesn’t now. The debt would be in the “sketchy junk” arena.
- wdchil：苹果股价低于400美元的时候，杠杆收购似乎讲得通，但现在绝对不合适。假如此时苹果进行杠杆收购，它的债务将基本等同于垃圾债。
– petergrayhill: This latest surge from high 400′s to 635 will end badly for the millions of mom’n’pop retail investors as well — head fake to trade. LBO is a certainty within 5 years.
- petergrayhill：苹果股价从400多美元一路上涨到635美元的最新一波上涨行情最后会死得很难看，数百万散户投资者也将没有好果子吃——交易的障眼法。杠杆收购5年内一定会发生。
– alexkeywest: An LBO of this company is delusional at best.
- alexkeywest：苹果将被杠杆收购简直是痴人说梦。
– doc: “Its a wonder that Tim Cook has not pursued a leveraged management buyout already” He doesn’t live in a theoretical world with too much time on his hands.
- doc:“蒂姆o库克没有寻求进行管理层杠杆收购，实在是令人吃惊。”因为库克没那么闲，没工夫在那儿纸上谈兵。
– brittlerock: Does SA pay people to write this junk?
- brittlerock：Seeking Alpha花钱请人写这种垃圾文章？
To answer brittlerock: Seeking Alpha’s rates are $0.01 per page view. Authors of PRO articles receive a minimum guaranteed payment of $150-500.
回复brittlerock：Seeking Alpha的稿费费率是，页面点击量的单价为0.01美元。专业文章的作者每篇文章保证能获得150-500美元的保底收入。
