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A person who compares the annual earnings of college and high school graduates would no doubt conclude that higher education is a good investment—the present value of the college earnings premium (the better part of $1 million) seemingly far outdistances college costs, yielding a high rate of return. But for many, attending college is unequivocally not the right decision on purely economic grounds.
如果比较一下大学毕业生和高中毕业生的收入水平，当然我们会发现高等教育是一项明智的投资，因为大学所获取的收入似乎远远超过学费。但是对很多人来说，如果单从经济角度分析，上大学并非一个明智的选择。
First of all, college graduates on average are smarter and have better work habits than high school graduates. Those who graduated from college were better students in high school, for example. Thus, at least a portion of the earnings premium associated with college has nothing to do with college per se, but rather with other traits.
第一，从平均水平来看，大学毕业生要比高中毕业生更聪慧，有更好的工作习惯，那些考入大学的人都是高中里的尖子学生。所以，大学教育所带来的额外收入当中，至少有一部分与大学本身无关，而是学生素质的问题。
Second, a goodly proportion (more than 40 percent) of those attending four-year colleges full-time fail to graduate, even within six years. At some colleges, the dropout rate is strikingly higher. While college students sometimes still gain marketable skills from partial attendance, others end up taking jobs that are often given to high school graduates, making little more money but having college debts and some lost earnings accrued while unsuccessfully pursing a degree.
第二，一大部分学生（超过40％）在四年全日制大学中没能毕业，甚至延长到了年也无法毕业。有些高校中的退学率令人不敢相信。虽然有一些学生通过半日制学习也获取了一些市场上需要的技能，但其他人只能获得给高中毕业生预备的工作岗位。他们在没有获得学位，没有挣到钱，又背负了沉重的学费贷款。
Third, not everyone is average. A non-swimmer trying to cross a stream that on average is three feet deep might drown because part of the stream is seven feet in depth. The same kind of thing sometimes happens to college graduates too entranced by statistics on averages. Earnings vary considerably between the graduates of different schools, and within schools, earnings differ a great deal between majors. Accounting, computer science, and engineering majors, for example, almost always make more than those majoring in education, social work, or ethnic studies.
第三，平均数不说明问题。一个不会游泳的人在横越一条平均水深3英尺的河流时有可能被淹死，因为这条河流中有的地方水深达7英尺。用平均统计数据描述的大学毕业生也存在同样的问题。不同高校毕业的学生收入水平也有很大的差别，即使在同一所学校中，不同专业毕业生的收入也有很大差距。例如，财务、计算机和工程专业的毕业生通常比教育、社会工作和伦理学专业的毕业生收入高。
Fourth, the number of new college graduates far exceeds the growth in the number of technical, managerial, and professional jobs where graduates traditionally have gravitated. As a consequence, we have a new phenomenon: underemployed college graduates doing jobs historically performed by those with much less education. We have, for example, more than 100, 000 janitors with college degrees, and 16, 000 degree-holding parking lot attendants.
第四，大学毕业生的数量远远超过技术、管理和专业等吸引高等教育人才的就业岗位的增长数量。所以我们发现：那些没能找到好工作的大学毕业生，正在从事不需要高等教育人员的工作。在我们国家，现在有10万持有大学学位的看门人，有16000名大学毕业生在作停车场管理员。
Does this mean no one should go to college? Of course not. First of all, college is more than training for a career, and many might benefit from the social and non-purely academic aspects of advanced schooling, even if the rate of return on college as a financial investment is low. Second, high school students with certain attributes are far less likely to drop out of school, and are likely to equal or excel the average statistics.
这是不是说所有人都不应当上大学呢？当然不是。首先，大学不仅仅是提供就业培训的场所，人们还可以在大学中提升社交和其它非学术性的能力，即使从经济角度来看，这些能力的回报率并不高。其次，优秀的大学生并不会辍学，他们的收入水平一般都会与平均数持平或者高。
Students who do well in high school and on college entrance exams are much more likely to graduate. Those going to private schools may pay more in tuition, but they also have lower dropout rates. Those majoring in some subjects, such as education or one of the humanities, can sometimes improve their job situation by double majoring or earning a minor in, say, economics.
在高中和大学入学考试中成绩优秀的学生很多。进入私立学校的学生虽然支付了昂贵的学费，但退学的并不多。那些主修教育、人文学科的学生，还可以通过辅修其它专业，比如经济学，来提升他们的就业前景。
As a general rule, I would say graduates in the top quarter of their class at a high-quality high school should go on to a four-year degree program, while those in the bottom quarter of their class at a high school with a mediocre educational reputation should not (opting instead for alternative methods of credentialing and training).
所以，在我看来，在高中排名前四分之一的学生应当就读四年全日制大学，在普通高中排名位于后四分之一的学生应当选择考虑其他。
Those in between should consider perhaps doing a two-year program and then transferring to a four-year school. There are, of course, exceptions to this rule, but it is important for us to keep in mind that college is not for everyone.
那些位于中间的学生或许可以考虑先读一个两年制的专业，然后转到四年制大学。当然，总有例外，重要的是，我们要记住，不是所有人都适合上大学。
