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Passage One
短文一
Now, you've been reading articles about the tremendous damage done to life and property by earthquakes.
到目前为止，大家看到过很多介绍地震给人们的生命及财产带来的惨重损失的文章。
That's why seismologists have been working so hard to develop methods of earthquake prediction.
这也是地震学家一直致力于大力研发地震预报方法的原因。
We can now predict earthquake fairly well but the predictions only locate potential areas of danger.
我们现在已经可以准确地预测到地震，但只能找到可能发生地震的危险区域，
They don't predict the specific time and location at which an earthquake is likely to occur.
地震学家不会预测地震发生的具体时间和地点。
Today I want to introduce you to three prediction models that have been developed.
今天我想向大家介绍三种地震预测方法。
The first prediction model looks along earthquake faults,
第一种方法是根据地震断层
those cracks in the Earth's crust, to find what are known as seismic gaps.
也就是地壳裂缝来寻找所谓的“地震空区”。
Seismic gaps are places where the fault has shown little or no seismic activity for a long time.
地震空区是通过地震断层找到的长时间没有发生地震活动的地区。
This theory postulates that such places are due for a major shock.
这种预测方法认为地震空区将是大地震的主震区。
The second model relies on phenomena—like ground tilt.
第二种预测方法根据地表现象判断，比如地表倾斜。
Using long cylindrical tubes containing water, observers noted that ground tilt tended to occur before major earthquakes.
研究人士通过使用装有水的圆形试管观测到，地表倾斜往往是大地震的前兆。
That led them to correctly predict the big Haicheng (HI CHUNG) quake of 1975
这种方法成功预测了1975年的海城地震。
the first successful earthquake prediction scientists have ever made.
这也是科学家第一次成功地预测到地震。
A million people were evacuated from that Chinese city before the earthquake struck.
地震发生前，一百万人从这座中国城市中撤离。
Unfortunately, this method hasn't worked consistently, so we can't say it's been perfected.
但不幸的是，这种方法的有效性并不具有一贯性，因此我们不能说这是一种完美的方法。
The third model is based on the theory that major earthquakes closely follow a series of minor ones.
第三种方法基于一个理论，这个理论就是大地震总是紧密跟随在一些小震之后。
Starting with the measurements and timing of the smaller quakes,
这种方法用预测小地震的震级和发生时间
a complex formula calculates the "times of increased probability" of a much larger quake.
确定的复杂公式来测算大地震发生的最可能的发生时间。
Right now, this method, like the first method, cannot predict specific time and places,
现在这种方法和第一种方法一样，无法预测地震的具体时间和地点。
but that may change as it is further developed.
但是随着进一步的研究情况可能会发生改变。
For the moment, none of these models can predict with reasonable levels of confidence.
就目前而言，没有哪种模型可以很有信心地，合理地做出地震预测。
Questions 9 to 12 are based on the passage you have just heard.
问题9到问题12是基于刚才你所听到的这篇文章
Question 9. What can we know about the earthquake prediction according to the speaker?
问题9 根据演讲内容，关于地震预测我们可以了解到什么？
Question 10. What is the earthquake fault?
问题10 地震断层是什么？
Question 11. Why could the scientists correctly predict Haicheng quake of 1975?
问题11 1975年科学家们为何准确地预测到了地震？
Question 12. What is the speaker's attitude toward the three prediction models?
问题12 演讲者对三种地震预测方法的态度是什么？
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