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The rains failed late last year, and the rains before that were meager, livestock have died, crops have failed. Famine threatens Somalia for the second time this decade. While drought is not uncommon in this dry region, it's gotten worse, says University of California at Santa Barbara, a climate scientist, Chris Funk.
去年年底，雨季时节降雨稀少。在那之前，降雨也很匮乏。大量家畜死亡。庄稼歉收。在过去10年间，这是索马里二度面临饥荒威胁。虽然旱情在这个干旱地区并不罕见，但情况变得更加糟糕，加州大学圣塔芭芭拉分校气候科学家克里斯·福克如此说道。
"Yes, so what we've seen over the last, say, 35 years is that the rainfall during what's called the long rains has declined substantially."
"是的，所以说，我们可以看到，35年来，所谓的'漫长雨季'的降雨量大幅下降。"
Funk says the explanation may lie in an atmospheric cycle that links East Africa and the Pacific Ocean. Warm, wet air rises over the western Pacific, causing rain over Southeast Asia. On the other side of the cycle, dry air descends over East Africa. That's why not much rain falls here even in normal years.
福克说，原因可能在于连接东非和太平洋的大气循环。西太平洋上空，温暖潮湿的空气上升，为东南亚地区带来降雨。而在循环的另一侧，干燥空气下沉落在东非一带。因此，即使在正常年份，这里也不会有多少雨水。
But when the western Pacific is warmer, it pushes the whole system harder: more rain over Southeast Asia, and more dry air descending on East Africa. More dry air means more drought, and Chris Funk says the ocean is getting warmer.
但是，当西太平洋变暖时，它会使整个循环系统更为复杂：东南亚地区会有更多的降雨，而更多的干燥空气在东非下降。干燥空气越多，意味着干旱越严重。克里斯.福克称，海洋正在变暖。
The warming over the western Pacific, you know, appears to be, you know, pretty much directly related to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."
"要知道，西太平洋的变暖似乎与大气中温室气体的增加直接相关。"
Research shows that in the past, a warmer planet meant a drier East Africa. But Funk says it's not entirely clear whether the current drying trend will continue.
研究表明，在过去，全球变暖意味着东非愈加干旱。但福克表示，尚不清楚目前的干旱趋势是否会继续下去。
You know, one of the things making it hard to look into the future is the fact that the story told by the global climate models, the climate change models, is pretty much exactly the opposite of what we're seeing in East Africa."
"你知道，让我们很难展望未来的一件事是，全球气候模式，气候变化模式所告诉我们的与我们在东非看到的极可能完全相反。"
The models say it should be getting wetter, but experts increasingly think the models may be flawed in this area. Funk and others are working on it, the short term is more clear. The western Pacific is still warmer than average, which means the forecast is for a third season of disappointing rains.
气候模式显示，气候会越来越潮湿。但是专家们越来越认为气候模式在这方面可能存在缺陷。福克和其他人正在努力改进这一模式。短期情形很明了：西太平洋温度仍高于平均气温，这预示着第三个雨季的降水量会再次让人们失望。
Steve Baragona, VOA News.
VOA新闻，史蒂夫·巴拉戈纳为您播报。
