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If there was actually a supply of good paying jobs available to people that were going unfilled because of the skills gap,
如果确实有高薪工作可供人们选择，而这些工作由于技能差距而无法填补，
then the traditional market assumption would be that people would retrain to fill those rules to increase their income and job security.
那么传统的市场假设是，人们会重新接受培训以填补这些空缺，从而增加收入和工作保障。
But that isn't happening because there are problems with every part of this assumption.
但这并没有发生，因为这个假设的每个部分都存在问题。
The first problem is that a lot of the jobs we have a skills gap for here in America don't actually pay that well.
第一个问题是，在美国，我们存在技能差距的很多工作实际上薪水并不高。
According to a report by the Society of Resource Management, the hardest rules to fill currently include jobs like nursing, teaching, the trades and social service work.
根据资源管理协会的一份报告，目前最难填补的空缺包括护理、教学、贸易和社会服务工作等。
Most jobs in these rules do not pay enough to support a comfortable life in a major city, especially for entry-level employees into the roles.
这些职位中的大多数工作薪水不足以维持大城市的舒适生活，尤其是对于刚进入这些职位的初级员工而言。
The trades can be great but apprentice tradesmen are not going to earn much until they are fully qualified.
这些行业可能很棒，但学徒在完全合格之前不会赚很多钱。
And even then, they need to work significant overtime or own their own business to make a comfortable salary in most parts of the country.
即便如此，他们也需要大量加班或拥有自己的企业才能在全国大部分地区赚取丰厚的薪水。
Even still, they are going to be better off than teachers and nurses, who not only need a college degree where they won't be paid anything, they also need on the job training before they are earning anything at all.
即使如此，他们也会比教师和护士过得好，后者不仅需要大学学位，但不会得到任何报酬，还需要在职培训才能获得任何收入。
That's on top of reports about extreme job stress, brutal work schedules, and the general lack of respect these roles receive.
除此之外，还有关于极端工作压力、残酷的工作时间表以及这些岗位普遍得不到尊重的报道。
Putting your career on hold, spending tens of thousands of dollars on a college degree, and dealing with difficult patients or often dangerous patients or children
暂停你的职业生涯，花费数万美元获得大学学位，处理难缠的病人或经常危险的病人或儿童，
is not that enticing to Americans who would consider a career switch, because the income for these roles hasn't risen in line with the demand gap.
对那些考虑转行的美国人来说并不那么有吸引力，因为这些职位的收入并没有随着需求差距而增长。
There is not a skill shortage. There is just a shortage of people who want to do difficult jobs for bad pay.
不存在技能短缺。只是缺少愿意做艰苦工作却薪水微薄的人。
People in these roles who already have the skills to perform the job at a high level are leaving because it's just not worth making the sacrifices necessary when there are easier jobs that pay just as much or more.
这些职位中已经具备高水平工作技能的人正在离开，因为当有薪水相同甚至更高的轻松工作时，做出必要的牺牲是不值得的。
A counter example to this trend was the rush to train computer science.
与这一趋势相反的例子是计算机科学培训的热潮。
The tech industry in the 2000s was expanding rapidly and we didn't have enough coders to perform roles that actually needed programming skills.
21世纪的科技行业发展迅速，我们没有足够的程序员来担任真正需要编程技能的职位。
The allure of high paying respected jobs with a good work life balance meant a lot of very smart people moved into that career path to fill the skills gap because there was a real reward for doing so.
高薪、受人尊敬的工作和良好的工作生活平衡的诱惑意味着许多非常聪明的人进入了这一职业道路，以填补技能差距，因为这样做有真正的回报。
Now there are actually too many qualified programmers. And as the tech industry has cooled down, hundreds of thousands of people have been laid off.
现在有太多合格的程序员了。随着科技行业的降温，数十万人被解雇。
Just 5 years ago though, they would have been told that there isn't enough programmers and companies are hiring whoever they can as fast as they can.
然而就在5年前，他们会被告知没有足够的程序员，公司正在尽可能快地招聘他们能招聘到的任何人。
So the assumption that empty jobs are just waiting to be filled and the only thing standing in the way is the skills gap can be a bit dangerous.
因此，认为空缺职位只是在等待填补，而阻碍这一进程的唯一因素是技能差距，这种假设可能有点危险。
But the final piece of the puzzle is how profitable fixing this myth can be.
但谜题的最后一部分是纠正这个神话能带来多大的利润。
Politicians can win some easy political points by talking about retraining programs and companies can push the responsibility of staff training onto their workers or those government programs.
政客们可以通过谈论再培训计划来赢得一些轻松的政治分数，公司可以将员工培训的责任推给员工或政府计划。
The market research firm Allied Market Research values the corporate training market at over $361 billion, with it projected to grow to over 800 billion by 2035. That's a major industry just by itself.
市场研究公司Allied Market Research估计，企业培训市场价值超过3610亿美元，预计到2035年将增长到8000多亿美元。这本身就是一个大型行业。
And it relies heavily on people believe that they are just one qualification away from landing a job that is just desperate to find the right worker.
它在很大程度上依赖于人们相信，他们只需获得一项资格，就能找到一份急需找到合适员工的工作。
This industry is separate from traditional colleges and trade schools, but you already know what a mess that whole thing is.
这个行业与传统的大学和职业学校不同，但你已经知道整个行业有多乱。
The skills gap has been a major lobbying tool by companies to push for this kind of training.
技能差距一直是企业推动此类培训的主要游说工具。
Siemens, an industrial equipment manufacturer, paid for an article in the Atlantic, talking directly to policy makers that the apprenticeships were the secret to closing the skills gap.
工业设备制造商西门子出资在《大西洋月刊》上发表了一篇文章，直接与政策制定者交谈，称学徒制是缩小技能差距的秘诀。
Apprenticeships are actually great but the reason that siemens was paying to publish this article is that it would give them a new pool of skilled workers to pick from, not because they wanted to help out with labor force policies.
学徒制实际上很棒，但西门子出资发表这篇文章的原因是，这将为他们提供一批新的技术工人可供选择，而不是因为他们想帮助制定劳动力政策。
And this is where you get to the most controversial part of the skills gap. It's used to justify immigration.
这就是技能差距中最具争议的部分。它被用来为移民辩护。
Now this is obviously a heated topic that everybody has their own set of opinions on.
现在这显然是一个热门话题，每个人都有自己的一套观点。
But it is possible to advocate for more careful and deliberate immigration policies. Without going full, they took our jobs.
但可以倡导更谨慎和深思熟虑的移民政策。没有全力以赴，他们就抢走了我们的工作。
The skills gap has been used to push for a lot of skilled migration, which has arguably gone too far in America but has been even been more obvious in places like Canada, the UK, Australia, Germany and New Zealand.
技能差距被用来推动大量技术移民，这在美国可能已经发展非常成熟了，但在加拿大、英国、澳大利亚、德国和新西兰等地更为明显。
The reason companies like this is because it lets them fill roles without putting upward pressure on salaries and more people means more customers to sell products to.
公司喜欢这样做的原因是，它让他们能够填补职位，而不会对工资造成上行压力，更多的人意味着可以向更多客户销售产品。
If the skills gap is front and center around these sensitive issues, it makes it easier for policy to be handwaved through as an essential measure to keep the country functioning.
如果技能差距是这些敏感问题的核心，那么政策就更容易被当作维持国家运转的必要措施而通过。
Here in America, H-1B and EB-3 skilled working visas are the most common way to get in workers who fill skilled rules that can't be filled by an American.
在美国，H-1B和EB-3技术工作签证是最常见的方式，可以吸引那些填补美国人无法填补的技术空缺的员工。
They come with a strict set of rules to make sure that American workers are not disadvantaged by new foreign hires.
他们制定了一套严格的规则，以确保美国员工不会因为新聘用的外国员工而处于不利地位。
But if job requirements are kept unreasonably high to make an artificial skills gap, it becomes easier to hire workers from overseas, who will be dependent on that company sponsorship to stay in America.
但如果工作要求过高，人为造成技能差距，那么雇佣海外员工就会变得更容易，而这些员工将依赖公司的赞助才能留在美国。
Who do you think is more likely to be a loyal employee? Now there are people who disagree with this.
你认为谁更有可能成为忠诚的员工？现在有人不同意这一点。
A smaller channel called The Market Exit did a great video a few months ago on a politically incorrect view of migration specifically in Europe.
几个月前，一个名为The Market Exit的小频道制作了一个很棒的视频，讲述了政治上不正确的移民观点，特别是欧洲移民观点。
I don't always agree with everything he says, but I think it's essential to hear our conflicting arguments.
我并不总是同意他说的每一句话，但我认为倾听相互矛盾的观点是必要的。
At the very least, his videos deserve way more attention than what they are getting.
至少，他的视频值得比现在更多的关注。
So instead of shamelessly plugging myself, I recommend that you go and check out his video. I will shamelessly plug my newsletter though.
因此，与其厚颜无耻地宣传自己，我建议你去看看他的视频。不过，我会厚颜无耻地宣传我的简讯。
This week we are publishing an article on the people who can't afford to retire, but they are doing it anyways.
本周，我们将发布一篇文章，讲述那些负担不起退休费用的人。
So make sure to sign up to that so you can keep on learning how money works.
所以一定要订阅，这样你就可以继续学习《金钱是如何运作的》。
