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Kamala Harris has made several economic promises on the campaign trail, including instituting price controls, offering home buyers $25,000, taxing unrealized capital gains.[qh]
卡玛拉·哈里斯在竞选活动中做出了多项经济承诺，包括实施价格控制、为购房者提供2.5万美元、对未实现的资本收益征税等。[qh]
And now, promising big tax deductions to small businesses.[qh]
现在，承诺为小企业大幅减税。[qh]
But she's also come out in support of roughly $5 trillion in tax increases.[qh]
但是她也站出来支持大约5万亿美元的增税计划。[qh]
In this episode, we speak with an economist about the effects these policies would have on the US economy and taxpayers.[qh]
在这一集中，我们与一位经济学家进行了交谈，讨论了这些政策对美国经济和纳税人的影响。[qh]
I'm daily wire editor in Chief John Bickley with Georgia Hal.[qh]
我是每日电讯报主编约翰·比克利，这是我的搭档乔治亚·哈尔。[qh]
It's Saturday, September 7th, and this is an extra edition of Morning Wire Joining us now is Thomas Savage, economist at the American Institute for Economic Research. [qh]
今天是9月7日，星期六，这里是《早间电讯》的特别版。今天我们邀请到了美国经济研究所的经济学家托马斯·萨维奇。[qh]
Thomas, thanks for coming on. Let's start big picture on Harris's proposals.[qh]
托马斯，感谢你的到来。让我们先从宏观角度来看哈里斯的提议。[qh]
The Penn Wharton budget model analyzed them and said they will lead to lower GDP less economic activity and wage reductions.[qh]
宾大沃顿预算模型对它们进行了分析，并表示这些举措将导致GDP下降、经济活动减少以及工资降低。[qh]
First, is that a a correct assessment in your view?[qh]
首先，在你看来，这是一个正确的评估吗？[qh]
Yeah, you know, while having not looked at the specific numbers that general trends are right on the money, a lot of what we could expect is what was going on in the current administration, which is record breaking regulations, higher taxes. [qh]
是的，你知道，虽然没有看到具体的数据，但总体趋势是正确的，我们可以预期的很多事情正在当前的政府中发生，这是创纪录的管制，更高的税收，[qh]
You know, all things that kill employment, that kill wage growth, and more of what's making the average American family really feel the pinch right now.[qh]
要知道，所有这些事情都会扼杀就业，扼杀工资增长，更多的是让普通美国家庭现在真正感受到了压力。[qh]
Now, to get more specific on some of her policies, Harris is proposing tax deductions of up to $50,000 in startup costs for small businesses. Right now, that deduction is set at $5,000. How would that proposal work?[qh]
现在，更具体地说，关于她的一些政策，哈里斯提议为小企业提供高达5万美元的启动成本税收减免。目前，这项扣除额设定为5000美元。这项提议将如何运作？[qh]
So that proposal, like most tax credits, is that people will pay money to the government and they have to jump through hurdles either to apply for a lower tax bill or Get a little bit of that money back.[qh]
该提案与大多数税收抵免一样，即人们将向政府支付资金，并且他们必须克服障碍，要么申请降低税单，要么拿回一点钱。[qh]
So it's more of a gimmick than it is actually savings.[qh]
所以这更像是一种噱头，而不是真正的节省。[qh]
I was reading some early estimates right out of the gate saying that it could cost up to $230 million.[qh]
我读了一些早期评估，刚一开始就可能要花费高达2.3亿美元。[qh]
And it's a gimmick to try to get small businesses excited, whereas she's talking about raising corporate income taxes.[qh]
这是一个试图让小企业兴奋的噱头，而她谈论的是提高企业所得税。[qh]
Although now it seems to be that they don't wanna raise it as high as President Biden had previously proposed. But it's still a raise.[qh]
虽然现在看来，他们不想把它提高到拜登总统之前提议的那么高，但仍然提高了。[qh]
And really the elephant in the room is the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act set to expire next year.[qh]
而真正明摆着的难题是将于明年到期的《减税和就业法案》。[qh]
Vice President Harris and President Biden have never made any sort of commitment to extending those tax cuts, which those sound tax reforms really helped Americans keep more of what they earn.[qh]
哈里斯副总统和拜登总统从未对延长减税做出任何承诺，而这些合理的税收改革确实帮助美国人保留了更多的收入。[qh]
And that's really what America needs is sound tax reforms, not gimmicks. [qh]
这才是美国真正需要的，即合理的税收改革，而非噱头。[qh]
More on the Trump tax cuts. What are some of the components of those tax reductions that have been effective?[qh]
关于特朗普减税政策的更多信息。这些减税措施中哪些部分是有效的？[qh]
So, some of the most effective ones have really been the personal income taxes and the business income taxes, as well as how taxes get reported, how income gets reported, exemptions for research and development.[qh]
因此，一些最有效的措施实际上是个人所得税和企业所得税，以及税收如何申报、收入如何申报、研发豁免等。[qh]
That's really what's going to help businesses grow.[qh]
这确实是能够帮助企业发展的因素。[qh]
But again, really, you know, for the average American, it's really the changing in the personal income tax rates, both for single filers and for families.[qh]
但是，再次强调，对于普通美国人来说，真正重要的是个人所得税税率的变化，无论是个人申报者还是家庭。[qh]
Once those expire, you're gonna see your tax bill go up, and I doubt most Americans are gonna see more bang for their buck in terms of tax dollars.[qh]
一旦这些政策到期，你会看到你的税单增加，而且我怀疑大多数美国人在纳税方面是否会看到更多的回报。[qh]
Harris has also proposed a $25,000 down payment credit on home purchases that may sound good to first time buyers. How will that work in reality?[qh]
哈里斯还提议为购房者提供2.5万美元的首付贷款，这对首次购房者来说可能听起来不错。但在现实中，这将如何运作呢？[qh]
So in reality, you know, if you really wanna make housing more affordable, you need to look at things like zoning reform, you need to look at property tax reforms, and those are things that need to happen.[qh]
所以实际上，你知道，如果你真的想让住房更负担得起，你需要考虑像分区改革这样的事情，你需要考虑财产税改革，这些都是需要发生的事情。[qh]
You know, of course at the federal, the state, and the local level.[qh]
你知道，当然是在联邦、州和地方层面。[qh]
And it gets back to again, how much the government is taking away an income.[qh]
而且这又回到了政府拿走多少收入的问题上。[qh]
You think about your tax bill, think about the money that's going to the government. That could go towards the down payment of a house.[qh]
你想想你的税单，想想那些要交给政府的钱。那笔钱本可以用来支付房子的首付。[qh]
It could go towards a number of things, but instead your tax dollars are being thrown away into the behemoth in Washington.[qh]
它可以用于很多事情，但相反，你的税款却被扔进了华盛顿的这个庞然大物中。[qh]
And so what we're likely to see is that while people will rush to try and get housing, it's going to increase say the demand for housing, but it's not really going to do much to increase the supply of housing.[qh]
因此，我们很可能看到的情况是，虽然人们会争先恐后地抢购住房，这将会增加住房需求，但对增加住房供应量却不会有太大帮助。[qh]
So, unless the supply of housing is allowed to increase in tandem, and normally that happens when you have regulatory reforms, you roll government back and allow people to build.[qh]
因此，除非允许住房供应量同步增长，而通常情况下，当你进行监管改革时，就会出现这种情况，即政府倒退，允许人们建造住房。[qh]
When you're having that home building constrained by regulations, it's just going to drive up the price of homes.[qh]
当你受到法规限制而无法建造房屋时，这只会推高房屋价格。[qh]
Sellers might say, oh, a first time buyer wants to buy this house. Let me jack up the price about $25,000.[qh]
卖家可能会说，哦，一个首次购房者想买这所房子。让我把价格抬高大约25,000美元。[qh]
'cause I know they're getting that money from the government.[qh]
因为我知道他们从政府那里得到了那笔钱。[qh]
Now, Harris has also proposed an unrealized capital gains tax.[qh]
现在，哈里斯还提议征收一项未实现的资本利得税。[qh]
This is by far the most controversial of her proposals.[qh]
这是她的提议中最具争议性的一个。[qh]
It would tax the increase in value of an individual's assets without them actually selling that asset.[qh]
它会对个人资产的增值征税，而无需他们实际出售该资产。[qh]
So taxing money that wasn't made, how would such a proposal affect investors? It would hurt everybody, not just investors.[qh]
那么，对未实现的收益征税，这样的提议会对投资者产生怎样的影响呢？它会伤害到每个人，而不仅仅是投资者。[qh]
First, you know, look at the history of the income tax.[qh]
首先，你知道，看看所得税的历史。[qh]
There's a viral screenshot going around right now of somebody asking chat, GPT one of the income tax first look like, who did it apply to?[qh]
现在有一张病毒式的截图在流传，有人问聊天机器人ChatGPT，所得税的第一眼看上去是什么样的，它适用于谁？[qh]
And chat GPT says, oh, it only applied to the very top income earners in America.[qh]
而ChatGPT说，哦，它只适用于美国收入最高的人群。[qh]
And then the person asks, how many people have the income tax applied to them now?[qh]
然后这个人问，现在有多少人需要缴纳所得税？[qh]
And chat GPT goes virtually every working American.[qh]
而且ChatGPT几乎涉及到每一个工作的美国人。[qh]
So even though this kind of thing is promised to only be for certain income earners, only for the high income, it's eventually going to make its way down to everybody else.[qh]
所以，即使这种事情被承诺只针对某些收入者，只针对高收入者，但最终它还是会影响到其他人。[qh]
And particularly if you're taxing these unquote unrealized gains, it's going to create a barrier to entry for the average American, looking to invest and grow their savings a little bit.[qh]
特别是如果你要对这些未实现的收益征税，这将为普通美国人的投资和储蓄增长设置障碍。[qh]
And even worse than that, you're going to deter private investment from those high income earners.[qh]
更糟糕的是，你会阻止那些高收入者的私人投资。[qh]
And private investment is what grows businesses, growing businesses, create jobs, and that gives gainful employment to Americans looking to earn more money or build a life for themselves.[qh]
私人投资可以促进企业发展，企业发展可以创造就业机会，这为那些希望赚更多钱或为自己创造生活的美国人提供了有报酬的就业机会。[qh]
And so when you're hampering economic growth like that, you are basically ensuring that the cost of living for the average American is only gonna get worse.[qh]
因此，当你这样阻碍经济增长时，你基本上是在确保普通美国人的生活成本只会变得更高。[qh]
Could a policy like that even hold up constitutionally? You know, that's a great question. Personally, I'm not a constitutional scholar. I, I imagine, at least looking at the sort of incentives that government has, they know they can at least drag it out in court.[qh]
这样的政策在宪法上站得住脚吗？ 你知道，这是一个很好的问题。就我个人而言，我不是宪法学者。我想，至少从政府的动机来看，他们知道至少可以拖到法庭上。[qh]
So even if it is inevitably turned down as unconstitutional, they can at least drag the arguments out in court for a bit and try to collect as much money as they can before it gets checked by the judicial branch.[qh]
因此，即使它不可避免地因违宪而被否决，他们至少可以在法庭上拖延辩论，并试图在司法部门审查之前尽可能多地筹集资金。[qh]
The shame of it is, is, you know, in government it's often, you know, what can we get away with? How can we grow our agency?[qh]
令人羞愧的是，在政府中，人们常常会想，我们能逃脱什么惩罚？我们怎样才能扩大我们的机构？[qh]
Because when you're looking at government success, really success is measured in two things, Economists find.[qh]
因为，经济学家发现，当你审视政府的成功时，真正的成功可以用两件事来衡量。[qh]
First thing is the size of your discretionary budget, and the second thing is the number of people working under you.[qh]
首先是你的可自由支配预算的规模，其次是在你手下工作的人数。[qh]
And so the only way for those two things to grow is mission creep. Hmm.[qh]
因此，这两件事发展的唯一途径就是任务偏离。嗯。[qh]
And so agencies that might support that through say the enforcement mechanism, particularly folks at the IRS, they'll be excited about that because it enables them to grow and get that bureaucratic success, even if it is inevitably shut down.[qh]
因此，那些可能通过执法机制来支持这一点的机构，特别是美国国税局的人，他们会对此感到兴奋，因为这使他们能够发展并获得官僚主义的成功，即使这不可避免地会被关闭。[qh]
I think they will try to get away with it for as long as they can if it does get passed. And that is a huge if. Right.[qh]
我认为如果它真的获得通过，他们会尽可能长时间地逃脱惩罚。这是一个巨大的假设。对。[qh]
