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Recession Risks Rise as Consumers Turn Cautious
消费者变得谨慎，使衰退危机增加
The economy’s resurgence from the pandemic shock has had a singular driving force: the consumer.
经济得以从疫情冲击中复苏是因为一个独特的驱动力：消费者。
Flush with savings and buoyed by a sizzling labor market, Americans have spent exuberantly, on goods such as furniture and electronics and then on services including air travel and restaurant meals.
有充裕的储蓄，再加上劳动力市场火爆，美国人出手阔绰，在家具和电子产品等商品上大肆花钱，然后又在飞机和餐馆等服务上大肆花钱。
How long this spending will hold up has become a crucial question.
这种消费能维持多久，已成为一个关键问题。
Despite contortions in world markets, many economists are cautioning that there is no reason to panic — at least not yet.
尽管世界市场出现扭曲，但许多经济学家提醒，没有理由恐慌，至少现在还没有。
In July, there was a notable slowdown in hiring and a jump in the unemployment rate to its highest level since October 2021, but consumer spending has remained relatively robust.
7月份，招聘明显放缓，失业率跃升至2021年10月以来的最高水平，但消费者支出仍保持相对强劲。
Wages are rising, though at a slower rate, and job cuts are still low.
工资正在上涨，虽然上涨速度有所放缓，裁员人数也仍然很少。
“Overall, there isn’t evidence of a retrenchment in consumer spending,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at the consulting firm EY-Parthenon.
“总体来说，没有证据表明消费者支出在缩减。”咨询公司安永-帕特农的首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科说。
The strength of spending helped power greater-than-expected economic growth in the spring.
强劲的支出在春季帮助推动经济超出预期地增长。
That could change if the labor market’s slowdown accelerates.
如果劳动力市场放缓速度加快，这种情况可能会改变。
Already, some consumers, especially those with lower incomes, are feeling the dual pinch of higher prices and elevated interest rates that are weighing on their finances.
一些消费者，尤其是那些收入较低的消费者，已经感受到了物价上涨和利率上升的双重压力，这些压力正在拖累他们的财务状况。
Credit card delinquencies are rising, and household debt has swelled.
信用卡违约率正在上升，家庭债务也在膨胀。
Pandemic-era savings have dwindled.
疫情时期的储蓄已经逐渐减少。
In June, Americans saved just 3.4 percent of their after-tax income, compared with 4.8 percent a year earlier.
6月份，美国人的储蓄仅占税后收入的3.4%，而一年前这一比例为4.8%。
On calls with investors and in boardrooms around the country, corporate executives are acknowledging that customers are no longer spending as freely as they used to.
全国各地的公司高管在与投资者和董事会的电话会议上承认，消费者不再像过去那样随心所欲地花钱了。
And they are bracing themselves for the slide to continue.
而且他们正在为消费持续下滑做好准备。
On Wednesday, Disney cited a “moderation of consumer demand” that “exceeded our previous expectations” for a newly challenging outlook at its theme parks, a key to its profitability.
周三，迪士尼表示，因为“消费者需求放缓超出了我们之前的预期”，所以其主题公园未来将面临新的挑战，而主题公园是其盈利能力的关键所在。
“The lower-income consumer is feeling a bit of stress,” with less to spend on amusements, Hugh F. Johnston, Disney’s chief financial officer, told analysts.
迪士尼首席财务官休·F·约翰斯顿告诉分析师，“低收入消费者感觉到了一些压力”，可用于娱乐消费的钱减少了。
There is also apprehension among retailers, fast-food chains and packaged-goods makers.
零售商、快餐连锁店和包装商品制造商也对此感到担忧。
“We are seeing cautious consumers,” Brian Olsavsky, Amazon’s chief financial officer, said on a call with reporters last week. “They’re looking for deals.”
亚马逊首席财务官布莱恩·奥尔萨夫斯基上周在接受记者电话采访时表示：“我们看到消费者变得更加谨慎，他们在寻找优惠商品。”
Chris Kempczinski, the chief executive of McDonald’s, likewise noted last week that some lower-income consumers were “dropping out of the market, eating at home and finding other ways to economize.”
麦当劳首席执行官克里斯·肯普辛斯基上周同样指出，一些低收入消费者“退出了市场，在家里吃饭，寻找其他省钱的方法”。
McDonald’s, which reported a 1 percent decline in global same-store sales, a measure of year-over-year retail sales for companies, in the quarter that ended in June, has been trying to lure back consumers with a $5 value meal.
麦当劳报告称，在截至6月份的季度里，全球同店销售额下降了1%，这是衡量公司同比零售额的一项指标，因此麦当劳一直在试图用5美元的超值套餐来吸引消费者回归。
Other fast-food brands are introducing similar deals.
其他快餐品牌也在推出类似的优惠。
Taco Bell is offering a variety of tacos and burritos priced at less than $3.
塔可钟正在提供各种价格不到3美元的塔可和玉米饼。
Burger King is selling a “Your Way Meal” for $5.
汉堡王正在出售5美元的“随心搭配套餐”。
