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Still, many economists are less sanguine. Inflation, at least excluding volatile food and energy prices, remains well above the Fed's 2 percent annual target, at 4.8 percent in June.
尽管如此，许多经济学家并不那么乐观。通货膨胀率，至少在除去波动较大的食品和能源价格之后，仍远高于美联储2%的年度目标，6月份的通胀率为4.8%。
And although the progress on inflation so far may have been relatively painless, there is no guarantee that will continue -- employers that initially responded to higher interest rates by hiring fewer workers may soon begin cutting jobs outright.
尽管到目前为止控制通胀可能相对来说没有带来很多痛苦，但不能保证这种情况会持续下去，最初通过减少雇佣员工来应对利率上升的雇主，可能很快就会开始直接裁员。
"People taking victory laps declaring a soft landing I think are premature," said Laurence M. Ball. He is a Johns Hopkins economist who wrote an influential paper last year concluding that it would be difficult for the Fed to get inflation back to 2 percent without a significant increase in unemployment.
"人们绕场一周庆祝胜利，宣布软着陆，我认为这还为时过早。"劳伦斯·M·鲍尔说。鲍尔是约翰·霍普金斯大学的经济学家，去年写了一篇有影响力的论文，结论是美联储很难在将通货膨胀率恢复到2%的同时，避免失业率的大幅上涨。
Part of the problem is that the Fed has little margin for error. Act too aggressively to tame inflation, and the central bank could push the economy into a recession. Do too little, and inflation could pick back up -- forcing policymakers to clamp back down.
部分问题在于，美联储几乎没有犯错的余地。如果采取过于激进的行动来抑制通胀，央行可能会将经济推入衰退。如果行动力度不够，通胀可能会回升，从而迫使政策制定者再次抑制通胀。
Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro, says he worries the strong labor market would fuel a new acceleration in the economy, leading to a resumption of rapid price increases -- an "inflationary boom" that reverses much of the recent progress.
复兴宏观公司的经济研究主管尼尔·杜塔表示，他担心强劲的劳动力市场将推动经济的新一轮加速，从而导致物价再次快速上涨，这种"通胀繁荣"将逆转最近的大部分进展。
"The next three to six months, the inflation dynamics will look pretty good -- it will feel like a soft landing," he said, "The question is, what comes after?" Then there are the factors outside policymakers' control.
"未来三到六个月，通胀动态看起来相当不错，感觉就像是软着陆，"他补充道，"问题是，之后会发生什么？"然后还有一些政策制定者无法控制的因素。
Oil prices, which soared last year when Russia invaded Ukraine, could do so again. Food prices could start rising again, too -- a possibility that became more real this week when Russia canceled a deal to allow Ukraine to export grain on the Black Sea.
去年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰时，石油价格飙升，现在可能会再次出现这种情况。食品价格可能也会再次上涨，本周俄罗斯取消了一项允许乌克兰从黑海港口出口粮食的协议，此事件将食品价格上涨的可能性变得更加现实。
With the economy already slowing, even relatively small developments could be enough to knock the recovery off course, said Jay Bryson, chief economist for Wells Fargo.
富国银行的首席经济学家杰伊·布赖森表示，在经济已经放缓的情况下，即使是相对较小的事态发展也可能足以让复苏偏离轨道。
For example, the looming resumption of student loan payments will strain the finances of many younger adults in particular. "The student loan thing is not, in and of itself, enough to cause a recession, but if you do have a downturn, it could be a kind of death by a thousand paper cuts," he said.
比如即将恢复偿还学生贷款，这将给许多年轻人的财务状况带来压力。他说："学生贷款本身并不足以导致经济衰退，但如果真的出现经济衰退，那可能就像是被纸划伤了一千次后导致的死亡。"
Mr. Bryson still expects a recession to start this year. But he has become less certain in recent months. He recently asked the nearly 20 people on his team to write down how likely they thought a recession was in the next year.
布赖森依然预计经济衰退将在今年开始。但近几个月来，他变得不那么确定了。他最近要求团队中的近20人写下，他们认为明年经济衰退的可能性有多大。
Answers ranged from 30 percent to 65 percent, with an average of exactly 50 percent -- coin-flip odds for a soft landing that many people once thought impossible. "Keep the Champagne on ice," Mr. Bryson said. "Hopefully early next year we can start popping it."
答案从30%到65%不等，平均数正好是50%，相当于抛硬币得出的概率，而许多人曾经认为软着陆是不可能的。"先把香槟放在冰块上，"布赖森说，"希望明年年初我们能打开它。"
