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Eurasia Group puts top risks out every year about what we think the things that are going to go bump in the night will be over the course of the coming 12 months.
欧亚集团每年都会发布我们认为在未来12个月内可能会发生变化的事情。
We've done it for a long time, we leave it on our homepage for the whole year.
我们已经这么做很长一段时间了，我们会把这些事情在主页上放一整年。
At the beginning of 2022, we put this out, and Russia is, I think, number five.
在2022年初，我们发布了这一清单，我记得俄罗斯排在第五。
And that's because we are pretty convinced that Russia is gonna head towards greater conflict with Ukraine, but it would've been number one, if I was convinced that Putin was going to invade Ukraine fully, and remove or attempt to remove President Zelensky from power.
因为我们非常确信俄罗斯将与乌克兰发生更大的冲突，但如果我相信普京将全面入侵乌克兰，并将泽连斯基总统赶下台或试图将其赶下台，那么它将会排在第一。
I did not believe that.
那时候我不相信这会发生。
And I'll tell you one reason I didn't believe that is because Putin only had 180,000 troops that were arrayed on Ukraine's border.
其中一个原因是普京在乌克兰边境只部署了18万名士兵。
And no, I didn't believe that this was only a training exercise, you don't take the Russians at face value when they say this sort of thing.
不，我当时并不相信这只是一次训练演习，俄罗斯人说这种话的时候，可不能相信它的字面意思。
But it was also clear that a total number of 180,000 troops is fewer than the Ukrainian army.
但也很明显，18万人的总人数比乌克兰军队还少。
I mean that invasion is sort of 0.8 to 1.
我的意思是，那种情况下入侵的话，人数比相当于0.8比1。
Anybody that's ever played Risk understands that you have an advantage holding territory.
任何玩过风险游戏的人都知道，要利用控制地盘的优势。
But Putin instead decided, "No, I think that Biden's weak.
但普京却决定：“不，我觉得拜登很软弱。
I think Macron is going his own way. I know Merkel's gone.
我相信马克龙会走自己的道路。我知道默克尔已经下台了。
And this new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, from the Social Democratic Party, those are the ones that like to work with the Russians.
而那位来自社会民主党的新总理奥拉夫·肖尔茨喜欢与俄罗斯人合作。
It's wintertime, right? They all need my gas.
现在是冬天，对吧？他们都需要我的天然气。
I've got maximum influence right now.
现在我的影响力是最大的。
We saw what happened with Afghanistan.
我们看到了在阿富汗发生的事情。
When I met with Biden a year ago in Switzerland, he didn't even bring up Ukraine.
一年前，我在瑞士与拜登会面时，他甚至都没提到乌克兰。
It was all about cyber.
他说的都是跟网络有关的事。
I told my guys to stop, so we're good over there.
我已经告诉我的人要停手，所以网络方面没问题了。
They wanna pivot to Asia, they're focused on China, meanwhile, Xi Jinping's just said I'm his best friend.
美国想要转向亚洲，他们关注的是中国，与此同时，习近平刚刚才说我是他最好的朋友。
Friends without limits globally, it's all working.
世界上没有上限的朋友，这一切都在起作用。
So, I have a unique opportunity to invade Ukraine, remove Zelensky, and furthermore, I can actually undo the biggest humiliation in Russian history.
所以，我有一个入侵乌克兰的独特机会，驱逐泽连斯基，而且，我实际上可以消除俄罗斯历史上最大的耻辱。
I can recreate the Russian Empire: Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia together."
我可以重建俄罗斯帝国：白俄罗斯、乌克兰和俄罗斯凝聚在一起。
That's what he believed.
这就是他当时相信的。
And it was the single biggest geopolitical mistake made by any leader on the global stage since the Wall came down in 1989.
这是自1989年柏林墙倒塌以来，全球舞台上所有领导人犯下的最大的地缘政治错误。
The misjudgment was massive.
这次误判是巨大的。
The failure was immense and immediate, and the consequences for Putin and for Russia will be permanent.
这次失败是巨大的、直接的，对普京和俄罗斯产生的后果将是永久性的。
'The sweeping Western sanctions are designed to inflict maximum pain on the country's economy by expelling it from global markets and freezing assets around the world.'
“西方的全面制裁旨在通过将俄罗斯驱逐出全球市场并冻结其世界各地的资产，给俄经济带来最大的痛苦。”
I think people aren't yet looking at the level of degradation that the Russian economy is going to experience for years.
我认为人们还没有看到俄罗斯经济将在未来几年遭遇的衰退程度。
Their infrastructure and their trade has been built towards Europe.
他们的基础设施和贸易都是面向欧洲的。
So the fact that Europe is going away as an interlocutor for Russia is enormously important.
所以，作为俄罗斯的对话者，欧洲的离开这一事实非常重要。
I mean, this year you'll see a 10 to 15% contraction of the Russian GDP.
我的意思是，今年你会看到俄罗斯GDP收缩10%到15%。
The investors from the West into Russia are gone, they're not coming back.
从西方进入俄罗斯的投资者已经走了，他们不会回来了。
Once the Europeans no longer need energy from Russia— which is largely already true for coal— it will be almost completely true of oil by the end of 2022, this year.
一旦欧洲人不再需要来自俄罗斯的能源--在很大程度上，煤炭已经不需要了--到2022年底，也就是今年，石油几乎也可以不需要了。
It will be mostly true for gas by the end of 2023, next year by winter.
到2023年底，明年冬天，天然气也基本不需要了。
That's not coming back.
那些都不会再回来了。
And the Russians are going to be angry domestically.
而俄罗斯人将在国内燃起愤怒之火。
But they're also gonna be angry externally.
但他们也会对外很愤怒。
And so far, most of our focus has been the Russian war in Ukraine.
目前为止，我们主要关注的是俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争。
But going forward, we're gonna broaden that aperture.
但展望未来，我们将扩大这一范围。
We'll broaden the aperture because, of course, it's going to affect global food prices and energy prices, and people will suffer, particularly, in the developing world.
我们将扩大范围，因为，这当然会影响全球的食品价格和能源价格，人们会受到影响，特别是在发展中国家。
But also we're gonna broaden the aperture because that fight is going to be much more about Russia versus NATO.
但我们也将扩大范围，因为这场战斗将更多地围绕俄罗斯与北约展开。
And so far, we have not seen much of that.
到目前为止，我们还没有看到太多这方面的情况。
