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You've been chosen as a champion to represent your wizarding house in a deadly duel against two rival magic schools.
你被选为你的巫术学院的代表，与两家魔法学校的对手进行致命决斗。
Your opponents are fearsome.
你的对手让人望而生畏。
From the Newt-niz school, a powerful sorcerer wields a wand that can turn people into fish, but his spell only works 70% of the time.
来自Newt-niz学校的是一位强大的法师，他挥动魔杖就能把人变成鱼，但他的咒语只有70%的成功率。
And from the Leib-ton school, an even more powerful enchantress wields a wand that turns people to statues, and it works 90% of the time.
另外还有来自Leib-ton学校的一位更强大的女巫，挥动魔杖就能把人变成雕像，且成功率有90%。
Lots are drawn, and you're chosen to cast the first spell in the duel.
抽签的结果是，你被抽中在决斗中可以先施魔咒。
The Newt-niz magician will go second, and the Leib-ton enchantress third,
Newt-niz的魔法师排在第二，Leib-ton的女巫则是第三，
after which you'll repeat casting in that order until only one of you is left.
之后，就用这个顺序轮流施魔咒，直到只剩下一人为止。
The rules of magic duels are strict, and anyone who casts out of order immediately forfeits the duel.
魔法决斗的规则很严格，不照顺序施魔咒的人就马上丧失决斗资格。
Also, to prevent draws, the rules stipulate that if everyone's still standing at the end of the first round, you'll all be turned into cats.
此外，为了避免平手，规则规定，只要在第一回合的最后所有人都没倒下，所有人都会被变为猫。
Now, you must choose a wand. Your wizarding house presents you with three options:
现在，你必须选择一枝魔杖。你的巫术学院提供你三个选择：
the Bannekar, which binds one target with vines and casts effectively 60% of the time,
Bannekar，能将一个目标用藤蔓绑住，成功率为60%；
the Gaussian, which turns one target into a tree and works 80% of the time,
Gaussian，能将一个目标变成一棵树，成功率为80%，
and the incredibly rare Noether 9000, which banishes one target to a distant mountaintop and casts perfectly 100% of the time.
还有非常稀有的Noether 9000，能将一个目标流放到遥远的山顶上，成功率是完美的100%。
Your opponents are masters of strategy, as well as sorcery, and you know they'll make the choices that maximize their own chances of success.
你的对手精通策略以及法术，你知道他们做选择的考虑是要让他们自己的成功率能达到最高。
Which wand should you choose and what strategy should you employ to have the greatest chance of winning the duel?
你该选择哪一枝魔杖，并且要采取哪一种策略才最有可能赢得决斗？
You reach for the Noether 9000 first.
你一开始想要拿Noether 9000。
After all, it makes sense to enter the duel with the most powerful wand.
毕竟，带着最强大的魔杖参加决斗是合理的选择。
But before you pick it up, you consider what would happen.
但，在你把它拿起来之前，你想了一下会发生的状况。
As the most dangerous wizard, you'd also be the target of the other two magicians,
若你是决斗中最危险的巫师，你就会成为另外两位魔法师的目标，
and you'd need to take care of the most dangerous of them first.
而你得要先把他们两人当中最危险的那一位解决掉。
But afterward, there's a 70% chance you'd be struck down by the remaining wizard. That's trouble.
但之后，就有70%的可能你会被剩下的那位巫师击倒。那就是问题所在。
Maybe it's better to take the Gaussian.
也许选Gaussian会比较好。
It works 80% of the time, which means you wouldn't be a target until the enchantress was incapacitated.
它的成功率有80%，那就表示，在女巫被打倒之前，你都不会成为目标。
But if you succeeded in transforming her, you'd probably be turned into a fish immediately after.
但如果你成功将她变身，你可能接着马上就会被变成鱼。
If you transformed the sorcerer, the enchantress would almost certainly turn you to stone.
如果你把法师变身，几乎可肯定女巫会把你变成石头。
It would really be better if you missed.
如果你失误反而会更好。
And that's when you have an idea: what if you took the Gaussian, then missed on purpose?
此时，你就有了个点子：如果你选择Gaussian，然后故意失误呢？
Then, you would wait for the sorcerer to attack the enchantress, and you'd have an 80% chance of winning against the sorcerer.
那么，你就可以等法师攻击女巫，并且你会有80%的机会打赢法师。
It's a good idea, but there's a problem; the sorcerer could also pass his turn
这是个好点子，但有个问题：法师也有可能故意失误，
and the enchantress, knowing that she couldn't pass without becoming a cat, would cast her spell on one of you.
那么女巫知道她不能在不被变成猫的情况下通过第一回合，她就会对你或法师其中一人施魔咒。
And since you're the most dangerous between you and the sorcerer, you'd be the target.
因为和法师相比，你比较危险，你就会成为目标。
And that's when you see what you really need to do: take the weakest wand, the Bannekar, and miss on purpose.
此时，你就知道你真正该做什么选择了：拿最弱的魔杖Bannekar，并且故意失误。
Now the sorcerer knows that he'll be targeted by the enchantress
现在，法师知道他会成为女巫的目标，
and he'll have to try to turn her into a fish to avoid being turned into stone.
他就会试着将女巫变成鱼，来避免自己被变成石头。
Seventy percent of the time he'd succeed and you'd have a 60% chance of winning the duel at the beginning of the next round.
他的成功机会有70%，而在下一回点开始时，你有60%的机会赢得决斗。
If he fails, chances are he'll be turned to stone and you'd still have a 60% chance of winning the duel against the enchantress.
如果他失败了，他很可能会被变成石头，而你要和女巫决斗，会有60%的机会获胜。
There's a slim 3% chance you'll all be turned into cats,
只有3%非常低的可能性所有人会被变成猫，
but when everything's accounted for, you have better than even odds of winning with this strategy.
但把一切都考虑进去后，用这个策略你会有最高的胜算。
And that's the best you can do. Here's what the probability of winning for the different strategies looks like.
这是你能做到最好的状况。表中列出的是不同策略的获胜机率。
Who would've thought that the best way to take your shot would be to throw away your shot?
谁想得到，最好的攻击方式，就是放弃自己的攻击机会？
