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It's not a question of if we will have a pandemic, it's a question of when.
这不是我们是否会爆发流行病的问题，而是何时爆发的问题。
The odds that something like that happens increases to the extent that we are not prepared that we do not increase our ability to find every case as soon as it jumps from an animal to a human, that we are not able to respond quickly by whatever means we have at the time.
这种情况发生的几率上升，使得我们措手不及，我们的能力没有提高到在从动物传播到人类时立马找到所有病例，我们现有的手段不足以迅速作出反应。
We won't have a vaccine or an antiviral on the first few days of a pandemic, so what we have to respond with is good public health.
在大流行的最初几天，我们不会有疫苗或抗病毒药物，所以我们必须以良好的公共卫生来应对。
We have to be able to do isolation, social distancing, containment, messaging, all of those things.
我们必须能够做到隔离，拉大社会距离，遏制，传递信息，所有这些事情。
It is unlikely that that first case is going to take place in New York City or Chicago.
第一起病例不太可能出现在纽约或芝加哥。
It is likely that it will take place in a poor country at the periphery of the country far away from the capital. That's what happened with Ebola, a perfect storm.
它很可能发生在一个远离首都的贫穷乡村。埃博拉病毒就是这样，完全是一场风暴。
The first cases took place at the border of three post-conflict impoverished countries that didn't have a very good public health infrastructure.
第一批病例发生在冲突后的三个贫穷国家的边界，这些国家没有良好的公共卫生基础设施。
And they started asking WHO to send in teams and to send in resources. It was right around the time of the World Health Assembly, which takes place in May.
他们开始请求世卫组织派遣队伍，提供资源，当时正值5月召开世界卫生大会之际。
And the World Health Assembly had said to the WHO management that they had to find a way to cut their budget.
世界卫生大会已经向世卫组织管理层表示，他们必须找到削减预算的方法。
And unfortunately the budget part that they cut was pandemic prevention, infectious disease control and immediate response to outbreaks.
不幸的是，他们削减的预算部分是流行病预防，传染病控制和对疫情的即时反应。
The net of that, the sad net of that is that it was six months before there was the declaration of an infectious disease of global significance, which is WHO's way of saying this is all in, let's send everybody do everything we can do.
令人遗憾的是，六个月之后宣布一种影响全球的传染病，世界卫生组织这样说，意思就是情况已经到了极点，我们要尽我们所能派出人员解决问题。
We were on a trajectory to reach hundreds of thousands of cases. And CDC actually estimated that we were on a trajectory to reach over one million cases, had not Obama and the U.S. jumped in with even military resources and sending them food - I mean Médecins Sans Frontières were heroes.
我们的发展轨迹是要达到几十万个病例。本来疾病控制和预防中心估计我们的感染人数将超过100万，幸好奥巴马和美国动用了军事资源，给他们送去了食物——我的意思是无国界医生是英雄。
But I think here's the lesson for us right now in the United States is we have an administration that wants to cut the size of government and freeze hiring and not hire new people.
但我认为，我们现在在美国得到的教训是，我们的政府想要削减政府规模，冻结招聘，不招新人。
We have to staff up for pandemic prevention. It is a low probability but a highly consequential event. These are the worst things to deal with.
我们必须增加人手预防流行病。这是一个概率低但后果严重的事情，也是最棘手的事情。
I was at an event called the Renaissance Weekenda couple of years ago and we had just made a movie called Contagion.
几年前我参加了一个叫文艺复兴周的活动，我们拍了一部叫《传染病》的电影。
And I wanted to make a movie that really looked like what a real pandemic would look like and that's what Contagion was, the science was impeccable.
我想拍一部电影，让它看起来就像一场真正的流行病，就是《传染病》，科学是不容捏造的。
So I showed this movie at the Renaissance Weekend and one of the most conservative Republicans in the country, part of a think tank that everybody knows, he spoke after me and he said,
所以我在文艺复兴周末放映了这部电影，美国最保守的共和党人之一，一个众所周知的智囊团的成员，在我之后发言说，
"I saw Contagion, I saw the movie. I realize now what a pandemic is like. I understand that government has got to be ready.
“我看了《传染病》，我看了这部电影。我现在意识到流行病是什么样子了。我明白政府必须做好准备。
So I've been telling people in the Tea Party, 'Cut, cut, cut, cut, cut the budget, cut everything. Cut cut, cut. Don't leave anything uncut.'
所以我一直在告诉茶党人士，‘削减，削减，削减，削减预算，削减一切。削减削减,削减。什么都不要留下。’
And then I saw Contagion. And now I say something similar, I say, 'Cut, cut, cut. Cut everything except pandemic preparedness."
然后我看到了《传染病》。现在我说类似的话，我说，‘削减，削减，削减。什么都要削减，但留下流行病预防。”
They are highly consequential and very difficult to plan for and understand and we only can do that with government and with international agencies. The private sector, corporations and foundations can't do it.
它们非常重要，很难规划和理解，我们只能通过政府和国际机构来做到这一点。私营部门、企业和基金会做不到这一点。
