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In 2015, we saw two fantastic, hopeful breakthroughs for humanity.
人类在2015年有两项很棒且很有希望的突破。
First, the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals, the collective, universal plan for humanity to eradicate hunger,
第一，采用了可持续发展目标，它是人类的集体、全体计划，旨在根绝饥荒，
good economic development and good health, within global environmental targets.
推动好的经济发展以及健康的好处，是在全球环境目标之下的计划。
Secondly, after 21 years of negotiations, we adopted the legally binding Paris Agreement,
第二，在21年的协商之后，我们采用了有法律约束力的巴黎协议，
all nations in the world keeping global warming under two degrees Celsius, aiming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.
全世界的所有国家要让全球暖化维持在2摄氏度之内，目标是1.5度摄氏。
Today, three years down the line, we're still in the hand-waving business.
现今，已经3年过去了，我们还连边都碰不着。
Now, I think it's time to step back one step
我认为，现在是该退一步的时候了，
and recognize that I wonder if the world leaders really knew what they signed at the General Assembly three years ago.
该承认我很纳闷三年前在联合国大会上，世界领导人们是否知道自己签了什么。
These are universal, aspirational, transformational goals for inclusive, prosperous humanity on a stable earth system.
这些是全体的、有抱负的、转型的目标，在稳定的地球系统上，让人类能够共荣。
But there are underlying problems.
但这背后有些问题。
We have inherent contradictions between these goals, where there's the risk of pursuing one favored goal at the expense of others.
在这些目标之间本来就有所矛盾，追求一个目标时，代价可能会是另一个目标。
Take, for example, Goal 8, on decent work and economic growth.
比如，以第8项目标为例：尊严工作带动经济成长。
If we continue doing that by exploiting natural resources and burning fossil fuels, it will be impossible to reach Goal 13.
若我们持续这么做的方式是使用自然资源和燃烧化石燃料，就不可能达成第13项目标。
Three years down the line, we simply must admit we're seeing limited action
已经过了3年，我们必须要承认，我们很少有看到任何行动
to really, really address this as an inclusive, collective, universal package.
真正将这个议题当作广泛、集体、全体的一组整体来处理。
Now, this requires us to step back one step.
这就需要我们向后退一步。
I think we have to ask ourselves some hard questions:
我认为我们必须要问我们自己一些困难的问题：
Do we have any chance of accomplishing the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030?
我们是否有机会在2030年完成可持续发展目标？
Are there actually inherent trade-offs that are not compatible with our current development paradigm?
是否在本质上有一些取舍和我们目前的发展范式不兼容？
But are there, perhaps, synergies where we can really accelerate change?
但有没有协同合作可以让我们真正加速改变？
And is it really a people-planet agenda,
它真的是一个“人类—地球”议程，
really taking seriously the social and economic aspirational goals within the life-support systems on earth?
真正有在地球的生命维持系统之下，严肃考虑有抱负的社会和经济目标？
Now, citizens across the world have started to recognize that we're facing global rising environmental risks;
全世界的公民都开始认知到我们正面临全球性的环境风险在上升；
in fact, that a stable planet is a prerequisite to have good human well-being on earth.
事实上，稳定的星球是必要的前提条件，然后人类才有可能在地球上安康乐利。
We need to define a safe operating space on a stable earth system,
我们需要在稳定的地球系统上定义出一个安全生存空间，
and the planetary boundary framework was introduced by the scientific community in 2009 to do exactly that.
2009年，科学界提出了地球限度架构，就是这个目的。
It has now been widely embraced across the world in policy,
这个架构现在已在全世界被广为接受，
business and communities as a framework for sustainable development in the Anthropocene.
在政策、企业以及小区内被当作是人类世的可持续发展架构。
This slide really shows the framework with the nine environmental processes that regulate the stability of the earth system,
这张投影片上的就是这个架构及9个环境过程，用以调节地球系统的稳定度，
providing a safe operating space, where we'll have a high chance of having good human well-being and prosperity and equity.
提供安全生存空间，我们才能有很大的机会能达成安康乐利、繁荣兴盛以及平等。
If we move into the yellow zone, we enter a dangerous uncertainty zone;
如果我们移入黄色地带，就是进入了危险的不确定地带；
and into the red, we have a high likelihood of crossing tipping points
红色地带则表示很有可能过了临界点，
that could take us irreversibly away from the ability of the earth system to provide social and economic well-being for humanity.
会让地球系统越来越无法为人类提供社会和经济的安康乐利，而这是个不可逆的后果。
Now, we can today, scientifically, quantify these boundaries, providing us a stable earth system for humanity.
现今，我们可以用科学的方式将这些限度给量化，提供人类一个稳定的地球系统。
But we have to go beyond this and recognize the Sustainable Development Goals
但我们必须要超越它，要认知到可持续发展目标，
if we really want to seriously accomplish them -- must now occur within this safe operating space.
如果我们真心想要认真达成它们，现在就必须要在这个安全生存空间中发生。
We need to achieve SDGs within PBs.
我们需要在地球限度之内达成可持续发展目标。
But dear friends, not even this is enough.
但亲爱的朋友们，就算这样也还不足够。
We need to recognize that the Sustainable Development Goals is 12 years away. It's only a milestone.
我们必须要认知到，要达到可持续发展目标，只剩十二年。它只是一个里程碑。
It is the bull's-eye that we need to go through and zoom ourselves towards transformations
它是我们需要穿过的靶心，将我们自己推向转变，
where we can have a good future for all co-citizens on earth, nine billion plus, within a stable earth system in 2050 and beyond.
才能为地球上的所有共同公民创造出一个美好未来，让超过90亿人生活在稳定的地球系统中，在2050年达成并持续下去。
This is a quest, and in order to really explore this and not have only opinions about it,
这是一项追寻，为了要真正去做探索，而不只是有口头意见，
we gathered the scientific community, the best thinkers and modelers
我们集结了科学界，最好的思想家和建模者，
and started to develop a completely new complex systems dynamic model, the Earth-3 model,
开始发展一个全新的复杂系统动态模型，“地球3号”，
building on models that have been around for the last 50 years. And here it is. This is a fantastic piece of work.
建基于这50年已有的模型。就是它。它是个很棒的杰作。
This has a climate module, a biosphere module, a global economic model;
它有气候模块、生物圈模块、全球经济模块；
it has algorithms, it has the whole room of fantastic accomplishments. This is what turns us scientists on.
它有算法，它有一大堆不凡的成果。它能让我们科学家动情。
I mean, this is just a beautiful piece of work?
我的意思是，它是很美好的杰作。
And I'd just love to spend the whole evening walking this through with you, but I'll make you disappointed.
我很想要用整晚的时间带各位了解它，但我会让你们失望。
I cannot do that. In fact, the only thing I can do with you is just to assure you that this is the first time it's done.
我无法这么做。事实上，我唯一能为你们做的就是向你们保证它是史无前例的。
Nobody has ever tried to really analytically combine the Sustainable Development Goals with planetary boundaries.
从来没有人试图在分析面上将可持续发展目标和地球限度结合。
And we were able to find patterns and really convergent trends
我们有办法找到模式和真正的收敛趋势，
that gives us a lot of confidence in our ability to now project economic development,
这让我们很有信心，相信我们现在有能力可以企划经济发展，
resources use from water, food and energy, population growth, income per person, yet along these consistent and systemic pathways.
水、食物和能源的资源使用，人口成长、人均收入，而且还能维持一致性和系统性。
So, it's the first time we have a robust opportunity to really explore the futures of ability of attaining the SDGs within PBs.
这是头一次，我们有稳定健全的机会，能够真正去探索未来在地球限度之内达成可持续发展目标的能力。
Now, how do we do this? Well, look at this.
我们要如何做到？看看这个。
Here, you have the data coming from the real world, calibrated from 1970-2015:
这里，有来自真实世界的数据，校正为1970年到2015年：
100,000 data points around the world, building on seven regions' ability, of really picking on all these Sustainable Development Goals.
全世界的10万个数据点，表示7个地区真正能处理所有这些可持续发展目标的能力。
Now, one example of how we calibrated this,
举例来说明我们如何校正它，
here you have for Sustainable Development Goals on eradicating poverty, health, education and food.
这里有可持续发展目标的数据，内容是关于根除贫穷、健康、教育以及食物。
And here you have in the bubbles the seven regions of the world,
这些泡泡是世界上的7个区域，可以看见，
how they move up until 2015 in our empirical observations in relation to GDP per capita, giving these universal convergent trends,
截至2015年，随着这些区域的人均GDP相关经验观察值如何向上爬升，产生这些全球的收敛趋势，
which enabled us to create regressions that could make us able to do simulations into the future, all the way until 2050,
让我们能建立回归模型，这么一来就可以做出一直到2050的未来模拟，
showing the ability along the lines here to attain the SDGs.
呈现出用这里的方式来达成可持续发展目标的能力。
Now, this gave us the opportunity of doing several scenarios, testing different possible futures:
这让我们有机会可以做几种情境，测试不同的可能未来：
business as usual, global transformations, investment schemes in business, different governance options, policies, finance
照常营运，全球转型，企业的投资计划，不同的治理选项，政策，金融
really, to explore what the future can look like in our ability to attain the SDGs within PBs.
去探究以我们在地球限度的范围内达成可持续发展目标的能力，未来可以变成什么样子。
And the results, I can tell you, really surprised us. And this will be the first time it's shown.
我可以告诉各位的是，结果让我们很惊讶。这将会是第一次呈现出来。
It should actually not even be referenced outside of this room.
甚至在这间房间以外的地方都不应该提到它。
Now, it actually is presented along two axes.
它其实是用两个轴来呈现。
The y-axis here shows our ability to stay within planetary boundaries.
这里的Y轴是我们保持在地球限度内的能力。
The higher up, the closer you are to the safe operating space.
越往上就表示你越接近安全生存空间。
On the x-axis are the Sustainable Development Goals; the further to the right, the more of the SDGs we fulfill.
X轴是可持续发展目标；越往右表示我们能实现越多可持续发展目标。
We all want to be in the upper right-hand corner, the safe and just world for the future.
我们都希望能落在右上角，表示未来有安全且公平的世界。
Now, the point you see there is 1980.
各位看到的这个点是1980年。
We were in a situation where we actually were in a safe operating space but not meeting so many of the SDGs.
我们当时的情况是处在安全生存空间中，但还没有实现很多可持续发展目标。
Here's the trend up until 2015. So this is the conventional world,
这是一直到2015年的趋势。这是传统的世界，
which is actually delivering on an increasing number of SDGs, lifting millions of people out of poverty,
它真的能实现越来越多的可持续发展目标，让数百万人脱离贫困，
but doing it at the expense of the safe operating space on earth.
但这么做的代价却是地球上的安全生存空间。
Now, this is the scenario business as usual, into the future.
这就是照常营运，朝未来前进的情境。
If we just move on as today, we will be able to deliver on some of the SDGs,
如果我们就这样走下去，我们将能够实现一些可持续发展目标，
but we'll do it at the expense of the stability of the earth system.
但我们会付出的代价是地球系统的稳定度。
Now, what if we go faster on economic growth
如果我们把经济成长加速，
and really ally on one percent increase per year of income and an even tripling of the world economy by 2050?
真正做到每年收入增加1%，甚至到了2050年让世界经济变成3倍呢？
That would give us the following trajectory.
那就会产生下列的轨迹。
We would, yes, go a little bit further on SDG accomplishments, but still at the expense of the risk of destabilizing the planet.
的确，我们在可持续发展目标的完成度上会有进步，但代价仍然会是有让地球稳定度下降的风险。
But what if we really go harder?
但如果我们真的很努力呢？
What if we increase our ability to deliver on our promises by 30 percent across all sectors in society, from climate to our trade agreements?
如果把我们实现诺言的能力增加30%，涵盖社会上的各个部门，从气候到贸易协议？
A harder scenario would take us a little bit better, but still, we're failing on the SDGs,
这个比较努力的情境会让我们有更好一点的结果，但我们仍然做不到可持续发展目标，
and we are not accomplishing a safe operating space for humanity.
并且我们也没有达成人类的安全生存空间。
So this really led us to a quite disappointing conclusion,
所以这其实会带领我们走向让人失望的结论，
that we will actually, even if we go conventional futures, fail on the SDGs and transgress planetary boundaries.
即：即使我们选择传统方式的未来，还是做不到可持续发展目标，并且会超过地球限度。
We need some radical thinking.
我们需要一些根本性思考。
We need to go into a transformative, disruptive future, where we start thinking outside of the box.
我们必须要进入一个转型的、颠覆性的未来，在这个未来，我们可以跳出框框思考。
The modeling and engagement and dialogues enable us to identify five transformations that could actually potentially take us there.
建模、参与、对话，让我们可以找出5种转型，真的有机会带我们走向这样的未来。
The first one is to cut emissions by half every decade along the scientific pathway to Paris,
第1种是每10年就让排放量减半，朝巴黎协议努力，
doubling investments in renewable energy, creating a global energy democracy, allowing us to meet several of the SDGs.
把对于再生能源的投资加倍，创造出全球能源民主，让我们可以达成好几个可持续发展模型。
The second is a rapid shift towards sustainable food systems,
第2种是快速转换，转为可持续性的食物系统，
investing one percent per year in sustainable intensification
每年投资1%做可持续性的强化，
and really moving towards implementing and investing in solutions that we already have available today.
真正迈向导入及投资我们现今已经可取得的解决方案。
The third is really to shift our development paradigm and learn from many of the developing countries that have moved very fast.
第3种是真正转换我们的发展范式，并向许多快速前进的发展中国家学习。
What if we could have an economic growth such as in China,
如果我们能够有中国那样的经济成长，
while doing it within the environmental parameters of an ecological civilization?
而且是在生态文明的环境参数之内办到，那会如何？
Fourth, a redistribution of wealth.
第4种，财富重新分配。
What if we could that the richest 10 percent could not allow themselves to amass more than 40 percent, maximum, of national incomes
如果我们能让最有钱的10%人不让自己积聚的最大值超过全国收入的40%，
a drastic redistribution of wealth, reforming the ability of equity across regions?
财富的极端重新分配，重新形成各区域平等的能力，那会如何？
And finally, fifth, a radical increase in more education, health, access to work, contraception,
最后，第5种，从根本上增加更多教育、健康、工作机会、避孕、
investing largely in women across the world, allowing us to deliver on SDGs on gender, inequality, economics and urban development.
在全世界大量投资女性，让我们能实现关于性别、不平等、经济和都市发展的可持续发展目标。
Now, if we would push ourselves across all these five
如果我们要在这5种转型上都加把劲，
we tested this, and it would give us an amazing journey towards the safe and just operating space on earth.
我们做过测试了，结果是会让我们踏上一段很了不起的旅程，目标是地球上创造安全、公平的生存空间。
It shows us that even with a conservative, empirically based, complex system dynamics model,
我们可以看到，即使是用一个保守、以经验为基础的复杂系统动态模型，
we are at a state where we can actually think of transformations over the next 12 years and beyond that
我们的状态仍然是可以真正去思考接下来12年及之后的转变，
can take us up into the safe operating space and deliver on aspirational social and economic goals.
来带我们进入安全生存空间，实现很有抱负的社会和经济目标。
This is actually quite uplifting, despite the fact that we're not moving along this trajectory.
这其实相当让人振奋，尽管我们现在并没有沿着这个轨迹移动。
So, in summary: we now, three years into the operational delivery on the SDGs,
所以，总结一下：在运作上去履行可持续发展目标已经有3年的时间，
must draw a line and conclude that we're not delivering on our promises,
我们必须要画一条线，断定我们并没有实现我们的诺言，
and not only that, we're running the risks of future generations having an even tougher ability,
不仅如此，我们还冒着让未来世代更辛苦的风险，
because of the risk of pushing the earth system beyond tipping points.
因为有可能会把地球系统推向临界点之外。
In fact, we are facing even a risk of a hothouse earth,
事实上，我们甚至要面对温室地球的风险，
where we will undermine and create geopolitical instabilities that could actually make life even more tough for billions of people on earth.
这样我们会逐渐造成损害，导致地理政治上的不稳定，让地球上数十亿人的生活更困难。
This, in all honesty, really, really scares me.
老实说，这真的很让我害怕。
But that's also why I'm standing here tonight, because the window of success is still open.
但这也是为什么今天晚上我会站在这里，因为通往成功的窗户仍然开着。
The earth system is still resilient.
地球系统仍然有恢复力。
She is still providing us with ecosystem services and functions that can allow us a transition back into a safe operating space.
她仍然在提供我们生态系统服务和功能，让我们可以做出转型，回到安全生存空间。
But we need radically different thinking.
但我们需要从根本上就不同的思考。
We need to see this as an incredible wake-up call but also an opportunity for transformative change,
我们需要把它视为是唤醒我们的警讯，以及做出转型式改变的机会，
where we shift gears and really start thinking of the SDGs as a transformative agenda within a safe operating space on earth.
让我们换档，真正开始把可持续发展目标想成是地球上安全生存空间中的转变式议程。
In other words, we can build a safe and just world.
换言之，我们能建立安全、公平的世界。
We just have to really, really get on with it. And let's do it. Thank you.
我们只需要真正持续的好好去做。让我们放开手做吧。谢谢。
