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This is a graph that represents the economic history of human civilization.
这是一张图，图上的是人类文明的经济历史。
There's not much going on, is there.
图上没多少东西。
For the vast majority of human history,
人类历史大部分的时期，
pretty much everyone lived on the equivalent of one dollar per day, and not much changed.
几乎人人都是一天用一美金在过日子，没有很大的改变。
But then, something extraordinary happened: the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions.
接着，不凡的事发生了：科学和工业革命。
And the basically flat graph you just saw transforms into this.
各位刚刚看到几乎是平坦的图形转变成这样。
What this graph means is that, in terms of power to change the world,
这张图的意义是，就改变世界的力量来说，
we live in an unprecedented time in human history, and I believe our ethical understanding hasn't yet caught up with this fact.
我们处在人类历史上前所未见的时代，并且我认为我们的伦理领会还没有赶上这些发展。
The Scientific and Industrial Revolutions transformed both our understanding of the world and our ability to alter it.
科学和工业革命转变了我们对世界的了解及我们改变世界的能力。
What we need is an ethical revolution so that we can work out how do we use this tremendous bounty of resources to improve the world.
我们需要的是伦理革命，这样我们才能想出我们要如何使用这么丰富的资源来改善世界。
For the last 10 years, my colleagues and I have developed a philosophy and research program that we call effective altruism.
在过去十年间，我和我同事在开发一个哲学和研究的项目，我们称它为有效利他主义。
It tries to respond to these radical changes in our world,
这个项目是在尝试对世界上的这些极端改变做出应变，
uses evidence and careful reasoning to try to answer this question: How can we do the most good?
使用证据和谨慎的推论来试着回答这个问题：我们要如何做至善的善事？
Now, there are many issues you've got to address if you want to tackle this problem:
你需要处理许多议题，才能解决这个问题：
whether to do good through your charity or your career or your political engagement,
是否透过慈善事业、职业或参与政治来行善，
what programs to focus on, who to work with.
要投入什么计划，要和谁合作。
But what I want to talk about is what I think is the most fundamental problem.
但我想要谈的是我认为最基本的问题。
Of all the many problems that the world faces, which should we be focused on trying to solve first?
世界所面临的这么多问题当中，我们应该聚焦优先解决哪一个？
Now, I'm going to give you a framework for thinking about this question, and the framework is very simple.
我要提供各位一个架构，用来思考这个问题，并且这个架构很简单。
A problem's higher priority, the bigger, the more easily solvable and the more neglected it is.
优先级高的迫切问题是大的、容易解决的和被忽视的。
Bigger is better, because we've got more to gain if we do solve the problem.
越大越好，因为若能解决这个问题，我们就能得到比较多。
More easily solvable is better because I can solve the problem with less time or money.
比较容易解决比较好，因为我可以花费较少的时间和金钱来解决这个问题。
And most subtly, more neglected is better, because of diminishing returns.
最微妙的一点是，越被忽视越好，理由是报酬递减。
The more resources that have already been invested into solving a problem, the harder it will be to make additional progress.
已经投入来解决这个问题的资源越多，就越难再做出额外的进展。
Now, the key thing that I want to leave with you is this framework,
我想要留给各位的关键，就是这个架构，
so that you can think for yourself what are the highest global priorities.
这样各位就可以自己想想，全球最高优先级的事是哪些。
But I and others in the effective altruism community have converged on three moral issues
但我和有效利他主义社区中的其他人已经对三项道德议题有了共识，
that we believe are unusually important, score unusually well in this framework.
我们认为它们是特别重要的，在这个架构中得到的分数特别高。
First is global health. This is supersolvable.
第一是全球健康。这个议题是超可解的。
We have an amazing track record in global health.
关于全球健康，我们有很惊人的追踪记录。
Rates of death from measles, malaria, diarrheal disease are down by over 70 percent.
麻疹、霍乱、痢疾的死亡率下降了超过70%。
And in 1980, we eradicated smallpox. I estimate we thereby saved over 60 million lives.
1980年，我们根绝了天花，我估计，这拯救了超过六千万条性命。
That's more lives saved than if we'd achieved world peace in that same time period.
就算能在那个时期达成世界和平，也救不了这么多人。
On our current best estimates,
依我们目前最佳的估计，
we can save a life by distributing long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets for just a few thousand dollars.
只要能发放用杀虫剂处理过的持久性蚊帐就能拯救一条性命，成本不过几千美元。
This is an amazing opportunity.
这是一个很棒的机会。
The second big priority is factory farming. This is superneglected.
第二个优先议题是工厂化养殖。这个议题被严重忽略了。
There are 50 billion land animals used every year for food,
每年，有五百亿只陆地动物被食用，
and the vast majority of them are factory farmed, living in conditions of horrific suffering.
它们绝大多数都是工厂化养殖的，生活条件非常恶劣、痛苦。
They're probably among the worst-off creatures on this planet,
它们可能是地球上最不幸的生物，
and in many cases, we could significantly improve their lives for just pennies per animal.
在许多案例中，我们都可以大幅改善它们的生活，每只动物只要几分钱即可。
Yet this is hugely neglected. There are 3,000 times more animals in factory farms than there are stray pets,
但这个议题却被严重忽视。工厂化养殖的动物数量比街头流浪的宠物要多三千倍，
but yet, factory farming gets one fiftieth of the philanthropic funding.
但工厂化养殖得到的慈善资金却只有五十分之一。
That means additional resources in this area could have a truly transformative impact.
这就意味着，在这个领域若有额外的资源，就能产生真正带来改变的影响。
Now the third area is the one that I want to focus on the most, and that's the category of existential risks:
第三个领域是我最想要拿来谈的，就是生存风险这个类别：
events like a nuclear war or a global pandemic that could permanently derail civilization
像核武战争或全球流行病这类事件，能够让文明永久脱轨，
or even lead to the extinction of the human race.
或甚至导致人类的灭绝。
Let me explain why I think this is such a big priority in terms of this framework.
让我用这个架构来解释为什么我认为这是个优先级很高的议题。
First, size. How bad would it be if there were a truly existential catastrophe?
首先，大小。如果真的发生了攸关生死存亡的大灾难会多糟？
Well, it would involve the deaths of all seven billion people on this planet and that means you and everyone you know and love.
嗯，它会牵涉到地球上全部七十亿人的存亡，包括你和你认识、你爱的所有人。
That's just a tragedy of unimaginable size.
这个悲剧大到无法想象。
But then, what's more, it would also mean the curtailment of humanity's future potential,
但还不只如此，它也意味着人类未来的潜能会被限制，
and I believe that humanity's potential is vast.
而我相信人类的潜能很大。
The human race has been around for about 200,000 years,
人类已经存在有大约二十万年了，
and if she lives as long as a typical mammalian species, she would last for about two million years.
如果人类能活得跟典型的哺乳动物物种一样久，就能活大约两百万年。
If the human race were a single individual, she would be just 10 years old today.
如果把整体人类看成是单一个体，人类现在才只有十岁而已。
And what's more, the human race isn't a typical mammalian species.
此外，人类并不是典型的哺乳动物物种。
There's no reason why, if we're careful, we should die off after only two million years.
如果我们够小心，我们不可能只存在两百万年就绝种。
The earth will remain habitable for 500 million years to come.
在接下来的五亿年，地球都仍然会是适合居住的。
And if someday, we took to the stars, the civilization could continue for billions more.
若有一天，我们能到其他星球，文明就还可以再延续数十亿年。
So I think the future is going to be really big, but is it going to be good?
所以我认为未来将会非常大，但未来会很好吗？
Is the human race even really worth preserving?
人类真的值得保护吗？
Well, we hear all the time about how things have been getting worse,
嗯，我们总是听到有人说事物变得更糟糕，
but I think that when we take the long run, things have been getting radically better.
但我认为，从长期来看，一切都彻底地变好了。
Here, for example, is life expectancy over time. Here's the proportion of people not living in extreme poverty.
比如，这是各时期的预期寿命。这是非处于极度贫穷生活条件的人口比例。
Here's the number of countries over time that have decriminalized homosexuality.
这是各时期让同性恋合法化的国家数目。
Here's the number of countries over time that have become democratic.
这是各时期民主国家的数目。
Then, when we look to the future, there could be so much more to gain again.
当我们看向未来，会发现还有好多可以获得的。
We'll be so much richer, we can solve so many problems that are intractable today.
我们会富有许多，我们能够解决许多现今的棘手问题。
So if this is kind of a graph of how humanity has progressed in terms of total human flourishing over time,
如果就全人类随时间而过得更好的层面上来看，这张图算是某种人类进步图，
well, this is what we would expect future progress to look like. It's vast.
那么我们预期未来进步会是像这样子的。它很广大。
Here, for example, is where we would expect no one to live in extreme poverty.
以这一点为例，我们预期到这时候就没有人会过着极度贫穷的生活。
Here is where we would expect everyone to be better off than the richest person alive today.
在这里，我们预期人人都会比现今最富有的人过得更好。
Perhaps here is where we would discover the fundamental natural laws that govern our world.
也许在这里，我们会发现管理我们世界的基本自然法则。
Perhaps here is where we discover an entirely new form of art, a form of music we currently lack the ears to hear.
也许在这里，我们会发现全新的艺术形式，我们目前没有办法听见的音乐形式。
And this is just the next few thousand years.
这只是接下来的几千年。
Once we think past that, well, we can't even imagine the heights that human accomplishment might reach.
一旦我们想到更远的时间，我们甚至无法想象人类的成就能够有多高。
So the future could be very big and it could be very good, but are there ways we could lose this value?
所以，未来可能是非常大，也可能是非常好的，但我们会不会以某些方式失去这价值？
And sadly, I think there are. The last two centuries brought tremendous technological progress,
很不幸，我认为有可能。过去两个世纪发生了很巨大的技术进步，
but they also brought the global risks of nuclear war and the possibility of extreme climate change.
但也带来了核武战争的全球风险，以及极端气候改变的可能性。
When we look to the coming centuries, we should expect to see the same pattern again.
当我们看向接下来的几世纪，我们应该会预期再次看到同样的模式。
And we can see some radically powerful technologies on the horizon.
我们能看到一些极强大的技术即将问世。
Synthetic biology might give us the power to create viruses of unprecedented contagiousness and lethality.
合成生物学可能让我们能创造出具有前所未见感染力和致命度的病毒。
Geoengineering might give us the power to dramatically alter the earth's climate.
地球工程可能让我们能大大改变地球的气候。
Artificial intelligence might give us the power to create intelligent agents with abilities greater than our own.
人工智能可能让我们能创造出才能比我们更好的智能代理人。
Now, I'm not saying that any of these risks are particularly likely,
我并不是说上述这些风险特别有可能发生，
but when there's so much at stake, even small probabilities matter a great deal.
但当赌注有这么高的时候，即使很低的机率也是非常要紧的。
Imagine if you're getting on a plane and you're kind of nervous, and the pilot reassures you by saying,
想象一下，如果你要上飞机，并且你蛮紧张的，而驾驶员说了这样的话来向你保证：
"There's only a one-in-a-thousand chance of crashing. Don't worry." Would you feel reassured?
“坠机的几率只有一千分之一。别担心。”你会觉得安心吗？
For these reasons, I think that preserving the future of humanity is among the most important problems that we currently face.
基于这些理由，我认为保护人类的未来是我们目前所面临最重要的问题之一。
But let's keep using this framework. Is this problem neglected?
但让我们继续用这个架构吧。这个问题有被忽视吗？
And I think the answer is yes, and that's because problems that affect future generations are often hugely neglected.
我认为答案是“有”，那是因为会影响未来世代的问题通常被严重忽视。
Why? Because future people don't participate in markets today.
为什么？因为未来的人并没有参与现今的市场。
They don't have a vote. It's not like there's a lobby representing the interests of those born in 2300 AD.
他们没有投票权。并没有一个游说团会代表2300年出生者的利益。
They don't get to influence the decisions we make today. They're voiceless.
他们无法影响我们现今所做的决策。他们无法发声。
And that means we still spend a paltry amount on these issues:
那就表示，我们在这些议题上投入非常少：
nuclear nonproliferation, geoengineering, biorisk, artificial intelligence safety.
防止核武器扩散、地球工程、生物风险、人工智能安全性。
All of these receive only a few tens of millions of dollars of philanthropic funding every year.
所有这些议题每年都只得到几千万美元的慈善资金。
That's tiny compared to the 390 billion dollars that's spent on US philanthropy in total.
这个数字相对很小，因为美国的总慈善金额为三千九百亿美元。
The final aspect of our framework then: Is this solvable? I believe it is.
接着，架构的最后一个方面：它是可解决的吗？我相信是的。
You can contribute with your money, your career or your political engagement.
你可以贡献你的金钱、你的职业或你的政治参与。
With your money, you can support organizations that focus on these risks,
若你投入金钱，你可以资助组织，让它们着重这些风险，
like the Nuclear Threat Initiative, which campaigns to take nuclear weapons off hair-trigger alert,
比如“核威胁倡议”，它在做的是不要让核武处在一触即发的警戒状态，
or the Blue Ribbon Panel, which develops policy to minimize the damage from natural and man-made pandemics,
或“蓝带小组”，它在做的是开发政策，把自然发生和人为造成的流行病所造成的影响给最小化，
or the Center for Human-Compatible AI, which does technical research to ensure that AI systems are safe and reliable.
或“人类兼容人工智能中心”，它是在做技术研究，确保人工智能系统的安全可靠。
With your political engagement, you can vote for candidates that care about these risks,
若你投入的是政治参与，你可以投票给在乎这些风险的候选人，
and you can support greater international cooperation.
你也可以支持更大的国际合作。
And then with your career, there is so much that you can do.
若你投入的是职业，你能做的非常多。
Of course, we need scientists and policymakers and organization leaders, but just as importantly,
当然，我们需要科学家、政策制订者和组织领导人，但同样重要的，
we also need accountants and managers and assistants to work in these organizations that are tackling these problems.
我们也需要会计师、经理人和助理，在这些能够处理这些问题的组织中工作。
Now, the research program of effective altruism is still in its infancy,
有效利他主义的研究项目还在初期阶段，
and there's still a huge amount that we don't know.
还有很多我们不知道的。
But even with what we've learned so far,
但就我们目前所知道的来说，
we can see that by thinking carefully and by focusing on those problems that are big, solvable and neglected,
我们可以看到，若能谨慎思考，并把焦点放在那些可解决、被忽视的大问题上，
we can make a truly tremendous difference to the world for thousands of years to come. Thank you.
我们就能在接下来的数千年真正为世界带来很大的改变。谢谢。
