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I love airplanes. Oh -- I love airplanes.
我爱飞机。喔...我爱飞机。
So, when I went to college in the late 90s, it was obvious that I was going to study aerospace.
所以，九十年代末当我上大学时，很显然我要读的就是航天系。
And you wouldn't believe how many people told me,
你不会相信有多少人告诉我，
"Oh no, not aerospace. Aerospace is going to be boring, everything in aerospace has already been done."
“喔，不，不要念航天。航天会很无聊，航天中的一切都已经有人做了。”
Well, they were a little bit off the mark.
嗯，他们有一点偏离了目标。
And in fact, I think the next decade is going to be another golden age for aviation.
事实上，我认为接下来十年会是航天的另一个黄金时期。
For one thing, and this is where I get excited, flight is about to get a lot more personal.
一则，这也是让我很兴奋的一点，飞行将会变的更个人化许多。
So, a little compare and contrast. In the last century, large commercial airplanes have connected cities across the globe.
所以，来做一点比较和对比。在上个世纪，大型商用飞机连结了全球的城市。
And 100 years ago, it would have been unthinkable for all of us to fly here from around the world for a five-day conference.
一百年前，我们所有人都难以想象从世界各地飞来这里参加为期五天的大会。
But we did, and most of us probably without a second thought.
但我们就这么做了，并且大部分人都觉得理所当然。
And that's a remarkable achievement for humanity.
那是人类很了不起的成就。
But on a day-to-day basis, we still spend a lot of time in cars. Or actively trying to avoid it.
但在日常生活中，我们还是花很多时间在车上。或者主动避免花时间在车上。
Some of my best friends live in San Francisco, I live in Mountain View, about 40 miles away. We're all busy.
我有一些最好的朋友住在旧金山，我住在山景城，相距约40英里。我们都很忙。
At the end of the day, we're separated by something like two hours of heavy traffic.
到了最后，我们被两小时的拥塞交通分隔开来。
So frankly, we haven't seen each other in a few months.
坦白说，我们已经几个月不见了。
Now, I work in downtown San Jose, which is near the airport.
我工作的地点在圣何塞市中心，很靠近机场。
And there are actually days when I can leave work, get on a plane and fly to Los Angeles faster than I can drive to San Francisco.
其实有些日子我可以离开工作岗位，坐上飞机，飞到洛杉矶，比我开车到旧金山还快。
Cities are only getting more populated, the roads are full, and it's really difficult to expand them.
城市只会人口越来越多，道路已经满了，很难再做什么扩充。
And so in a lot of places, there really aren't a lot of good solutions for getting around traffic.
所以，在许多地方，其实没有什么好的解决方案可以避开交通流量。
But what if you could fly over it?
但如果你能飞越它呢？
The sky is underutilized, and I would argue it will never be as congested as the roads are.
天空还没有被充分利用，并且我认为天空永远都不可能会像道路这么拥塞。
First of all, you've got a whole other dimension,
首先，你会多一个维度，
but also just safety considerations and air-traffic management will not allow bumper-to-bumper traffic in the sky.
但安全考虑以及空中交通管理不会允许空中出现一台紧接一台的行进方式。
Which means, in many cases, flying can be a long-term, compelling alternative to traveling on the ground.
也就是说，在许多情况下，飞行会是一种吸引人的长期替代方案，取代地面行进。
So imagine this: you call an Uber, it takes you to a nearby landing spot -- we call these vertiports
所以，想象一下：你可以用Uber叫车，带你到附近的降落地点--我们称之为垂直升降机场，
there's an airplane waiting for you there, flies you over all of the traffic in the middle,
在那里有一架飞机等着你，带你飞过中间的繁忙交通，
and on the other side, another Uber takes you to your friend's house.
在另一头，有另一台Uber的车载你去你朋友家。
And I said Uber, but I really think we need to congratulate the Lyft branding team for their forward thinking in choosing their brand.
我说到了Uber，但我认为我们得要祝贺Lyft的品牌命名团队，在命名时就已经想到未来。
So in that example, OK, there are a few extra steps, I admit.
在那个例子中，好，我承认还有额外的几步要走。
But it's 30 minutes versus two hours, it costs around 60 dollars, and you get to fly.
但这差别是半小时比上两小时，成本大约是60美金，你就能用飞的。
We're not there yet, but we are a lot closer than you might think.
我们还没办到，但已经比你想象的还要接近成功。
So one of the first things we need is we need an aircraft
我们首先需要的东西之一，是我们需要一台飞行器，
that can take off and land in small spaces and quickly take you where you want to go.
能在小空间起降，能快速带你到你想去的地方。
And helicopters can do that today, but traditionally, helicopters have been just a little bit too expensive,
现今的直升机就可以做到这一点，但传统的直升机太贵了一点，
just a little too hard to pilot and just a little too noisy to be used for daily transportation in cities.
且有点太难驾驶，还有点太吵，不适合用在城市内的日常交通上。
Well, electric flight and autonomy are changing that.
电动飞行和自主性可以改变这些。
Electric flight, in particular, unlocks new possibilities for vehicle configurations that we just could not explore in the past.
特别是电动飞行，为运载工具的结构带来新的可能性，是我们过去无法想象的。
If you use electric motors, you can have many of them around the aircraft, and it doesn't add a lot of extra weight.
若用的是电动马达，你可以在飞行器上装很多台，也不会增加太多额外的重量。
And that gives you redundancy and safety. And also, they are cleaner, cheaper and quieter than internal combustion engines.
让你有些富余以及安全。此外，它们也比内燃式引擎更干净、便宜、安静。
Autonomy allows the transportation network to scale, and I actually think it makes the aircraft safer.
自主性让交通网络能够延展，并且我确实认为它能让飞行器更安全。
Commercial flights are already automated for most of their duration,
商业飞行的航程有很大一部分都已经是自动化的了，
and I believe there will come a day when we won't even trust an airplane that required a human to fly.
我相信将来会有一天，我们甚至不会信任由人类驾驶的飞机。
So, one of our teams at A3 wanted to see just how close this future really was.
所以，我们在A3的其中一个团队，想要看看这个未来到底有多近。
So they built and flew a prototype of one such vehicle.
所以他们打造了一台这种原型机并做了试飞。
And they made a point of only using mature, commercially available technologies today.
而且他们主张只使用现今已成熟且可做为商业用的技术。
We call it Vahana. It's fully electric. It takes off and lands vertically, but flies forward like a regular airplane.
我们称它为瓦哈纳。它是完全电动的。它会垂直起降，但像一般飞机一样向前飞行。
It's fully self-piloted. You push a button, it takes off, flies and lands, all by itself.
它完全是自动驾驶。你按一个按键，它就会升空、飞行、降落，完全自动化。
The prototype that you see here is designed to carry a single passenger and luggage.
各位在这里看到的原型机是设计来载一名乘客及行李用的。
And it can go about 20 miles in 15 minutes.
它在15分钟内可飞行20英里。
And our estimate for a trip like that is it would cost around 40 dollars, which you can really build a business around.
我们估计，像这样的行程，成本大约是40美金，这真的是有商机的。
It has multiple redundant motors and batteries, you can lose one, it will continue flying and land normally.
它有数个多余的马达和电池，就算一个坏了，仍然可以继续飞行并正常降落。
It's pretty quiet. When it's flying overhead, it will be quieter than a Prius on the highway.
它很安静。它从上方飞过时，比高速公路上的Prius还安静。
It's intelligent and has cameras, lidar and radar, so it can detect and avoid unexpected obstacles.
它有智慧，配有摄影机、激光定位器、雷达，它能侦测到并避开未预期的障碍物。
And the team really focused on making it efficient, so the batteries are small, light, and they last longer.
并且研发团队非常着重在它的效能，所以电池很小、很轻、很持久。
For reference, the Vahana battery is less than half the size of a Tesla Model S battery. It's about 40 kilowatt-hours.
供各位参考，瓦哈纳的电池大小还不到Tesla Model S电池的一半。它的功率约40千瓦小时。
And you can hot swap the batteries in just a few minutes.
电池是热插入式的，只要几分钟即可完成。
And I do think that in a few years, people will be comfortable getting by themselves in a self-piloted, electric, VTOL air taxi.
我确实认为，在几年之后，大家就会很自在地搭乘自动驾驶、电动、垂直起降的空中出租车。
But the team is busy working on the next version, which is going to carry at least two passengers and fly quite a bit farther.
但研发团队在忙着做下一个版本，这个版本将至少可容纳两名乘客，且能飞得更远一点。
But more importantly, there are over 20 companies around the world working on vehicles just like this one right now.
但更重要的是，全世界有超过20家公司现在都投入资源在做这类的运载工具。
My best guess is in the next five years, you'll start seeing vertiports in some cities,
我的最佳揣测是，在接下来五年，就会在一些城市中看见垂直升降机场，
and little airplane icons on your ride-sharing apps.
手机上也出现飞机图示的共乘app。
And it might begin with a dozen, but eventually, we could have hundreds of these, flying around our cities.
一开始可能只有十几台，但最终我们会有数百台，在城市各处飞行。
And it will fundamentally transform our relationship with local travel.
它会从根本上转变我们和当地出行的关系。
In the past century, flight connected our planet, in the next,
在过去一个世纪，飞行连结了地球，在下一个世纪，
it will reconnect our local communities, and I hope it will reconnect us to each other. Thank you.
飞行将会重新连结当地小区，我也希望它会让我们重新和彼此连结。谢谢。
OK, so when these things first roll out -- right now, it's a single person aircraft, right?
所以，当这些东西最早推出时--现在，它只是单人乘坐的飞行器，对吧？
Ours is, yes.
我们的这款，是的。
Yours is. I mean, someone comes out of their car, the door opens, they get in, there's no one else in there.
你们的那款是。我的意思是，人们下了车，门打开来，他们走进去，里面没有其他人。
This thing takes off. Could we do a poll here? Because these are early adopters in this room.
这东西就起飞了。我们能在此做个调查吗？因为在这里的人都是会先采用的人。
I want to know who here is excited about the idea of being picked up solo in an auto-flying -- Well, there you go!
我想要知道，谁很兴奋想要看到这个单人自动飞行的点子实现--嗯，答案揭晓！
It's pretty good.
挺不错的。
That is pretty awesome, half of TED is completely stark staring bonkers.
很了不起。TED有一半的人都是疯子。
So, one of the things we're really focusing on is, really, the cost. So you can really wrap a business around that.
我们很着重的其中一点，就是成本。这样才能真正有商机。
And so, that's why some of the features are really driven by price.
这就是为什么有些特色是以价格为考虑。
And the 40-dollar price tag is really a target that we're aiming for.
我们的目标是在上面挂上$40的价格标签。
Which should make it accessible to a larger crowd than this one.
这样应该能让比这里的观众还大很多的群体来使用。
The biggest blockage in terms of when this rolls out is probably not the technology at this point -- it's regulation, right?
就何时要推出的层面来说，在这个时点最大的阻碍可能不是技术，而是法规，对吧？
That's probably true, yes, I would agree with that.
很可能是如此，是的，我同意。
The technology need to mature in terms of safety, to get to the safety levels that we expect from aircraft.
在安全方面，技术必须要很成熟，才能达到我们期望这台飞行器具有的安全性。
But I don't think there are any blockers there, just work needs to get done.
但我不觉得这方面有任何阻碍，只是等着我们去做。
So, first, this is ride sharing. Are we that far away from a time when lots of people have one of these in their garage
所以，首先，这是共乘。我们是否很快就能看到许多人在自家车库就有一台这种飞行器，
and just kind of, go direct to their friend's house?
类似就可以直接飞到他们的朋友家去？
My personal view is that ride sharing actually allows you to operate that entire business much more efficiently.
我个人的看法是，共乘其实会让你能够更有效率地营运这整个事业。
You know, there are millennials that say they never want to own a car.
你知道的，有些千禧世代的人说他们这辈子都不会买车。
I think they'll probably feel even stronger about aircraft. So...
我想，对于飞行器他们的感受可能会更强烈。所以...
I really think that the network scales and operates a lot better as a ride-sharing platform,
我真的认为共乘平台的形式，会让这个网络延展和营运得更好，
also because the integration with air-traffic management works a lot better if it's handled centrally.
还有一个原因，空中交通管理的整合，若能集中处理，会能做得比较好。
Cool. Thank you for that. Thank you. That was amazing.
很棒。非常谢谢你。谢谢你。真的很了不起。
