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When one is confronted with a situation that’s truly zero sum where one party is going to win and the other party is going to lose,
人们面临真正的零和博弈的时候 也就是一方的收益意味着另一方的损失
a situation is very complicated and sometimes difficult to analyze.
情况就会很复杂 有时候还难以分析
Game theory spent much of its early days analyzing zero sum games and trying to figure out what’s the best strategy.
早期的博弈论经常分析零和博弈 试图找出最佳策略
It’s a little complicated because it depends critically on how sophisticated you think the other party is.
这有些复杂 因为它主要取决于你觉得对方的经验有多丰富
If they’re very, very, very smart, the chances that you’re going to outthink them are not very high.
如果他们极其精明 那么你超越他们的可能性就不太高
In such a situation often times the best strategy is very counterintuitive,
在这种情况下 最佳策略往往与直觉相反
because it involves flipping a coin or rolling a dice or doing something random.
因为它包含扔硬币 掷骰子 或者一些很随机的事
Professional poker players know this and they often times advocate in poker strategy books
职业扑克玩家深知这一点 他们经常在扑克策略书籍中
that one should occasionally do something completely counterintuitive
建议人们偶尔要做一些完全违背直觉的事
in order to keep your opponents off guard.
以此让你的对手放松警惕
And in fact game theory has shown that this is good, solid, mathematically well-founded advice,
其实 博弈论证明这是一条可靠的 有算数依据的良好建议
that often times what you want to do is engage in a kind of random strategy—game theorists call this a mixed strategy—
多数情况 你都想采用一种随机策略——博弈理论家称其为混合策略——
in order to make sure that your opponent can’t get the leg up on you.
这样会让你的对手摸不着头脑
The nice thing about these random strategies is that they ensure that your opponent can never outthink you.
这些随机策略比较好的一点是 它们会让你的对手永远也超不过你
So even if you think your opponent is a little smarter than you or a little bit more sophisticated than you or has a little bit more information than you do,
所以即便你觉得对手比你聪明一些 经验比你丰富一些 或者比你掌握更多信息
the fact that you’re being random to a certain extent means that they can’t outthink you.
但你的随机性是他们无法超越的东西
Now how do you figure out how to be random?
那你要怎么随机呢？
I’m not saying just flip a coin all the time or whatever.
我不是说一直扔硬币之类的
What game theorists have figured out is that in zero sum games the best strategy to pursue when you’re against a sophisticated opponent
博弈理论家发现 在零和博弈中 当你面对经验丰富的对手时
is to adopt the strategy which minimizes your maximum loss.
最佳策略就是采用会让你的最大损失最小化的策略
This is sometimes called the mini max strategy.
这种方法有时候被称为最小最大损失策略
So the idea is you think: what’s the worst case scenario for me?
所以你要想：对我来说 最坏的情况是什么？
What could my opponent do that would make me worse off?
我的对手可能做什么让我更惨？
And then you figure out what’s the best strategy against that, so you’re minimizing your maximum loss.
然后你想出与这相反的最佳策略 这样就能把你的最大损失最小化
Game theorists prove that if you use this way of thinking, minimizing your maximum loss,
博弈理论家证明 如果你这么想 最小化你的最大损失
you ensure that no matter how sophisticated your opponent is you’ve guarded against the worst case scenario.
你就可以保证 不管你的对手有多么老练 你都可以防止出现最坏的情况
And not only that but in zero sum games you’ve done the best you can possibly do.
不仅如此 在零和博弈中 你还做出了最佳表现
That’s not true in games that aren’t zero sum, so one has to be very careful about employing this strategy,
但在非零和博弈中就不是这样了 所以一定要谨慎使用这个策略
because if you’re mistaken and you’re not in a zero sum interaction you could end up ruining it for everybody.
因为如果你弄错了 你并不是在零和博弈中 那么你可能会毁掉所有人的收益
But if you’re truly in a zero sum interaction this is one of the strategies that you can use.
不过如果你确实处于零和博弈中 你就可以采用这种策略
Now suppose that you’re dealing with an opponent who’s not sophisticated, you are smarter than they are,
假设你在跟一个经验不太丰富的对手博弈 你比他们聪明
there it depends very much on: how smart are they? Can you outthink them?
那么这就取决于：他们有多聪明？你能超越他们吗？
And what’s the individual interaction that you’re engaged in?
牵涉其中的个人关系是什么？
So to return it to the example of poker players, poker players will engage in interactions where they’re trying to think,
再回到扑克玩家的例子上 扑克玩家会在个人互动方面思考
“Well does my opponent think I’m going to bluff here, yes or no? And maybe I’ll do the opposite.”
“我的对手会觉得我这是在虚张声势吗？或许我应该反其道而行之”
But that’s going to depend on how smart is your opponent?
不过这要取决于你的对手有多聪明了
What are they thinking about, and the individual interaction that you’re engaged in.
他们在想些什么 以及你的个人互动关系
Game theorists have actually proven—although it’s not very helpful—but game theorists have actually proven that
博弈理论家已经证明——虽然没啥用处——但博弈理论家已经证明
there is no the one size fits all strategy in a situation where you’re dealing with an opponent who is not very sophisticated.
当你面对经验不太丰富的对手时 没有任何一方可以随意采取所有策略
