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U.S. foreign policy over the last 15 to 25 years hasn’t really been working on delivering the goods,
美国过去15年至25年的外交政策并没有履行诺言
on making sure that America is safe and secure,
没能确保美国安全稳定
and at the same time being cognizant of the economic and human costs of our engagements.
也没有意识到我们的行为所伴随的经济和人力成本
If the United States had followed a more realist or restrained approach to the world
如果美国对世界采取的是更为现实和拘谨的政策
then it’s not as if Libya or Iraq would be thriving liberal democracies.
那么利比亚或伊拉克不会成为欣欣向荣的自由民主制国家
A foreign policy of restraint isn’t going to create heaven on Earth—but neither is a policy of primacy.
拘谨的外交政策不能创造人间天堂——但美国至上的政策同样不能
In fact, primacy has often led the United States to create situations where there’s greater instability,
其实 美国至上的政策经常会加剧其他地区的不稳定性
more problems, lots of unintended consequences that have spilled over to other places.
制造更多问题和始料未及的后果
And Iraq is a perfect example of that.
伊拉克就完美诠释了这一现象
ISIS would not exist in Iraq had it not been for the United States opening Pandora’s box by our regime-change efforts.
若不是美国搞政权更迭打开了“潘多拉之盒” 伊拉克根本就不会有ISIS
And that obviously spilled over to places like Syria.
很明显这一现象也扩散到了叙利亚
You’d also have some of these problems with our allies like Turkey related to some of the issues dealing with the Kurds.
另外 我们的盟友 比如说土耳其 还要解决库尔德人问题
The problem is that these war games expanded well beyond what was possible,
问题是这些战争博弈的扩散范围远超人们的想象
and again the U.S. really thought through what the ideal would be without thinking about the constraints that meant reality would look a lot different than that ideal.
再次说明美国只考虑理想状况 却忽略了约束条件会让现实和理想大相径庭
It would be great if Afghanistan were a liberal democracy, thriving economically, and not a place where folks like Al-Qaeda could operate out of.
如果阿富汗也是自由民主制国家 经济繁荣昌盛 远离基地组织分子的魔爪 那就太好了
The problem is that that wasn’t really in the cards.
但问题是那根本就是痴人说梦
And so you had situations, for example, like in Helmand, where General McChrystal sent “government in a box.”
所以说 比如在赫尔曼德省（阿富汗）麦克克里斯托将军把“政府关进了笼子里”
And what ended up happening, as General McChrystal later said, is that you got a bleeding ulcer in that country.
最后的下场就像麦克克里斯托将军所说的那样 这个国家产生了出血性溃疡
So these efforts at trying to nation build are often unnecessary for American’s core security interests and really impossible to realize in any kind of short run,
所以这些试图进行国家建设的努力对美国的核心安全利益来说实在是多此一举 而且在短期内根本不可能实现
and at a cost that we really think is appropriate given what we need to achieve as opposed to what might be ideal.
就目标而不是幻想而言 我们认为这一切成本都是值得的
And so we’ve really opened up all kinds of challenges in this attempt to create an exemplar for the Middle East.
于是我们就不惜耗费一切血本试图在中东地区建立一个典范
We actually have created an exemplar: an exemplar of what could go wrong if you engage in the world
事实上 我们还真建立了一个典范：这个典范就是如果你想站在世界舞台上
without first thinking carefully about what is necessary for American safety and what those unintended consequences of our behavior could be—
却不事先考虑好什么对美国的安全才是必不可少的 我们的行为会带来哪些预料之外的后果——
and how that spills back over into the United States in terms of the effects on Americans, the effects on our system of government, and our civil liberties,
这些后果会如何反噬美国人民 美国政体以及美国的公民自由
and really thinking about those human costs because often times we forget that there is a real price to be paid.
也不认真考虑耗费的人力资源 因为我们总是忘记需要付出血淋淋的真实代价 那么可能引发什么后果
So, for example, when the United States has intervened in places like Iraq and Libya there’s been a huge human cost with thousands of American lives lost,
所以 比如说 美国干涉伊拉克和利比亚时 就会有巨大的人力消耗 数以千计的美国人牺牲
tens of thousands of Americans harmed by that conflict, and a real human cost at home on families and communities.
还有成千上万的美国人因为这场冲突受到伤害 这对国内的家庭和社区而言是真实的人力成本
Not to mention the cost to those who were ostensibly trying to help in places like Libya and Iraq.
更不用说那些在表面上试图帮助利比亚和伊拉克的人的花费了
And so there are lots of unintended consequences of not following a more prudential or realistic approach to the world.
所以若不对世界采取更为谨慎或现实的政策 则会引发一系列意想不到的后果
And what restraint tries to do, or realism, is to really be cautious about that.
而谨慎或现实主义要做的就是小心对待那一点
To think about second-order consequences.
要考虑二阶后果
To think about the human and financial costs, and to put that in the calculus before you reach for the sword or the bayonet to try to achieve American foreign policy goals.
在你拿起尖刀利剑去实现美国的外交政策目标之前 要先考虑人力和经济成本 把它们计算在内
So Libya is a classic case of a well-intentioned policy gone awry.
所以利比亚是南辕北辙的典型案例
So the argument was that the United States needed to get engaged as part of a responsibility to protect when conflict emerged in eastern Libya.
所以争论的焦点是 利比亚东部出现矛盾时 美国出于责任 需要去干预保护它
Unfortunately for the United States the consequences of this well-intentioned set of policies did not turn out the way we wanted it to.
不幸的是 美国出于善意的政策并没有取得如其所愿的效果
And this is a common problem in foreign policy, and something that a more realistic approach would try to remedy.
这在外交政策中是个通病 可以用更为现实的政策来修补
Namely in Libya we had a situation where we harmed those who were ostensibly trying to help—namely Libyan society.
比如说在利比亚 我们伤害了那些表面上试图帮忙的人 比如利比亚社会
Libya is an unstable country with rival parties trying to control the government.
利比亚国情很不稳定 有竞争党试图操纵政府
There’s also been the problem that terrorist organizations have come to Libya; arms have spilled out of Libya, helping destabilize the region.
恐怖主义组织也溜进了利比亚 武器在民间泛滥 这都让这个国家更为混乱
Think about a place like Mali that was destabilized by the spillover effects of Libya.
想想马里（西非国家）这样的国家 受利比亚影响 也被搅的动荡不安
It also harmed our counter-proliferation efforts.
它还损害了我们的反扩散努力
If you’re Kim Jong-Un in North Korea and you see what happened to a state like Libya that stopped engaging in a nuclear weapons program
如果你是朝鲜最高领导人金正恩 看到像利比亚这样的国家 在放弃发展核武器后
and that was working with the West in terms of counter-proliferation,
与西方世界共同致力于反扩散
then it’s no wonder that other states might be wary of giving up these programs
那也难怪其他国家都不愿意放弃核项目
or cooperating with the United States and the international institutions that are trying to prevent nuclear proliferation.
也不愿意与美国和试图阻止核扩散的国际机构合作
Look what happened to Muammar Gaddafi, the leader of Libya: he was eventually killed, the regime was toppled.
看看利比亚领导人穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲的下场 ：他本人被杀 政权被推翻
And so there was a very clear lesson that was learned by the rest of the world when you saw that.
看到这些 世界其他地区学到了很明显的教训
Not to mention if you pivot over to Iraq where you saw a country like Iraq where the United States also engaged in regime change.
更不用说伊拉克了 你会看到美国试图在伊拉克这样的国家掀起政权更迭
So even if these attempts are regime change were well-intentioned, the results have not been positive for America’s security and safety.
所以即便这些政权更迭用意良好 但结果却对美国的安全和稳定毫无裨益
Instead it’s actually harmed stability in these parts of the world thus harming American interests.
相反 它破坏了世界这些地区的稳定 从而损害了美国的利益
