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A big question—if anybody’s seen the movie 'Minority Report'
如果有人看过《少数派报告》这部电影
where people are arrested for crimes before they actually commit them,
它讲述的是很多人在真正实施犯罪之前就被逮捕
just because the data suggests they’re going to commit a crime—is:
仅仅是因为数据表明他们即将犯罪——那就会想到一个大问题：
are we entering this world with so much data available?
我们身处的世界有这么多可用数据吗？
And there definitely are clues on the internet that people are considering committing a crime.
网上一定能找到正在考虑实施犯罪的人的线索
People really do type “how to kill your girlfriend” on Google or “how to commit a murder”.
人们真的会在谷歌上搜索“怎么杀死女友”或“怎么实施谋杀”这种问题
So what should we do with this information as a society?
那么社会应该如何应对这种信息呢？
I think we have to be really, really careful.
我觉得我们得非常非常小心
There’s an ethical and privacy reason to be careful;
这是出于道德和隐私考虑
as a society it’s not supposed to be illegal to have bad thoughts.
从社会角度来看 拥有邪恶的想法并不违法
But I think there’s also a data science reason for this.
但这背后还有数据科学道理
One of the things that you do see in this data is that a lot of people have horrific thoughts or make horrific searches
大家可以在这个数据中看到 很多人会有可怕的想法 会搜索很恐怖的信息
without ever going through with a horrific action.
但他们绝不会去实施很恐怖的行为
So it may be that when we have all this data
所以我们可能会觉得如果有了这些数据
we think we’re just going to be able to figure out exactly who is a risk of committing a crime or doing something bad,
我们就能知道谁有可能犯罪或干坏事
but it may be that it’s just really, really hard because a huge percentage of people look really, really bad on paper but never go through with the action.
但其实这非常非常困难 因为有很多人名义上看来极其邪恶 但却从来不会真的去做坏事
There is a study of Prosper, a peer-to-peer lending firm.
有人对P2P贷款公司Prosper做了一份研究
So people can apply for loans, and scholars analyzed the loan application, what people wrote in their loan application,
人们可以申请贷款 学者分析人们在贷款申请中所填的内容
and whether they paid back their loan.
以及他们是否会还贷
And they found that you could predict whether someone will pay back the loan
结果发现你可以根据人们在贷款申请中使用的字眼
based on the words that person used in their loan application.
来判断他们是否真的会偿还贷款
So if a person uses the phrase “I promise” they’re much less likely to pay back a loan,
如果申请人使用了“我保证”这样的表达 他们就很可能不会还贷
because I guess everybody lies, so “I promise” is a clue that you’re not going to pay back the loan.
因为人人都会撒谎 所以“我保证”是人们不会还贷的一个线索
And one of the more striking indicators, one of the single highest indicators you’re not going to pay back the loan,
另一个更震惊的暗示 表明你不会还贷的最大的暗示
is if you use the word “God” in your loan application.
是如果你在贷款申请中用了“上帝”这个词
And this is kind of a little bit eerie and suggests a potentially dark future.
这个词有点怪异 暗指你的未来会不太好过
It means that someone, a lender, would be “wise” to not give a loan to anybody who mentions God.
也就是说人们 放款人 不给提到上帝的人放款是“明智”的
If someone says, “God bless you” in a loan application
如果有人在贷款申请中说“上帝保佑你”
they’re put together in a large group of other people who tend, on average, not to pay back their loans.
那么他们就是把一大群整体来说不太可能还贷的人放在一起了
So there’s real danger to some of this big data where a lot of the correlation—
所以这个大数据确实存在一些隐患 它们之间有很多关联
everything kind of correlates with everything else, and sometimes for reasons that we don’t understand,
任何事物之间都是互相联系的 但有时候出于一些我们不太明白的原因
some words people use, or likes they have on Facebook, predict that they’re going to do bad things,
人们用的一些字眼 比如他们在脸书上说的话 可以预测他们即将要干坏事
even if they’re not really going to do bad things, and they may be punished without even realizing why.
即便他们没有真的去实施坏事 那他们也会遭到惩罚 自己还不明白是为什么
One thing you see in the Google search data related to religion
你在谷歌与宗教有关的搜索数据库里可以看到的一点是
is the questions people have, and they’re usually concentrated in the Bible Belt.
人们所问的问题通常都与圣经有关
But people have kind of loaded questions about God.
但人们对上帝也有既定的观点问题
So “why does God allow bad things to happen to good people?”
比如“为什么上帝会让坏事发生在好人身上？”
or “why does God allow suffering?” or “why does God need so much praise?”
或“为什么上帝要让人们受苦？”或者“为什么上帝需要这么多的赞扬？”
These are questions that people might not raise aloud because they don’t want to share their doubts with others,
人们可能不太愿意大声提出这些问题 因为他们不想让别人知道自己的怀疑
but they turn to Google and ask some really, really loaded questions about some of the stories that they hear related to religion.
但他们会在谷歌上搜索一些非常非常既定的问题 都与一些宗教故事有关
