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My sort of crazy, somewhat arbitrary,
我有一个疯狂的原则
rule of thumb is you want to have a technology that's an order of magnitude better than the next best thing.
那就是你拥有的技术要比排名第二的公司好一个量级才行
So Amazon had over ten times as many books,
亚马逊的书比其他书商的十倍还多
maybe not that high tech, but you figure out a way to sell ten times as many books in an efficient online way.
也许不是什么高科技，但是他们找到了一种有效的卖出十倍多的书的线上销售方式
You know, PayPal, the alternative for PayPal was using checks to send money on eBay took seven to ten days to clear.
PayPal出现之前，eBay上用支票进行结算需要7到10天
PayPal could do it more than ten times as fast.
PayPal比其快了不只十倍
So you wanna have some sort of very powerful improvement in some order,
所以你的公司必须要有很大的改进才行
maybe an order of magnitude improvement on some key dimension.
在某些关键的地方，至少要有一个量级的革新
Of course, you know, if you actually come with something totally new it's,
当然如果你能创造出全新的东西
it's just, it's just like an infinite improvement.
那就相当于一个“无限”的革新
So I would say the, the iPhone was the first smartphone that worked and so that's, you know that's like I mean,
比如说，iPhone是第一部智能手机，我的意思是
I mean maybe not infinite, but it's sort of definitely order of magnitude or more of improvement.
也许不能说“无限”，但它进行了非常巨大的革新
So I think, the, the technology is designed to give you a massive delta over, over the next, the next best thing.
我认为，科技可以被用来进行巨大的改变
I think, I think there often are network effects that can kick in that, really help.
我认为网络效应可能会带来一些帮助
The thing that's very, and these, these lead to monopolies over time,
随着时间推移，可以形成垄断的企业
the thing that's very tricky about network effects is, they're often.
对于网络效应来说，很棘手的事情是
They're often very hard to get started.
开头特别难
So even though everyone understands how valuable they are,
即使每个人都知道这里面的价值
there is always this incredibly tricky question
但这里有个很难回答的问题
why is it valuable to the first person who is doing something?
为什么市场对第一个进入的人非常有价值？
Economies of scale, if you have something of a very high fixed costs, very low marginal cost.
这可以用规模经济来解释，如果你的公司生产成本很高，际成本很低
That's typically a monopoly like business.
那这就是一个典型的垄断企业
