评论
打印
Gelman argues that in any county
作者还称，在任何县
the wealthier people are going to be more Republican voting
较富裕的人都更有可能倾向于共和党
Yes, one line that says that "I'd like to test that out"
是的，可能有人会说这很容易证明
I mean it's true that in San Francisco
例如在三藩市
would it be the wealthier San Franciscosis who are voting Republican
是否较富裕的人会更倾向支持共和党呢?
What do you think?
你们意见如何?
I see people shaking their head
我看到有同学在摇头
How about in Palo Alto
那在帕罗奥多（斯坦福所在地）呢?
It's gonna be the richest Palo Alto who are voting Republican
这里最富裕的人是不是倾向支持共和党人?
Ok, I see some people, I don't know
我知道有些人是的，但我不确定
What I'd like to do if I ever had time would to go into the pressing data
如果我有时间，我想做的是亲自去调查这些数据
Look at how Los Altos hills which side they're voting
你可以到洛思拉图斯附近看看，当地富人到底倾向哪个党
compare those to Redwood city or other places
在雷德伍德城或者其他地方呢?
I haven't done that
我没有实践过这个想法
I haven't see anyone else who's done that either
也从来没见过其他人这么做
Truly, easy to get this county data,no problem
你们都知道，收集县级数据轻而易举
If you want go down to pricing level, it's harder
但如果你要收集市级的数据则比较难
Yes? ok, that the comment was in Hulston, Afron very wealthy areas
你有什么问题？他的问题是在那些非常富裕的区域
Voter registration much more Republican
注册的选民更多地倾向共和党人
That fits Gelman's model perfectly
这与Gelman的模型很吻合
That's exactly what he would argue
这就是他想告诉我们的
So he would say "yes, that's the pattern"
他应该会回答你，是的这就是规律
and we see it here in northern California as well as anywhere else
正如我们在北加州和其他地方看到的那样
So it's kind of interesting way of looking at this
从这个角度来分析投票倾向是十分有趣的
Again, if any one has views on this section
如果你们对这个问题还有什么其他见解
I'd love to hear them because it's real interesting aspect
我都很愿意听听，因为这个问题的确挺有趣的
Yes? transplants, yes
请提问?移居问题
That's something I'll be talking in a few weeks
这个问题我在后面几周的课程会讲
As people move from one area to another
这是人们在地区间的迁移造成的
A lot of opinion polling would suggest that
很多民意调查显示
Conservative people are actually more likely to move from one area to another
保守派人士会更愿意从一个地方搬到另一个地方
We'll see later on
以后我们会深入了解会发现
that the fastest growing counties are almost are all Republican voting counties
那些发展最迅猛的县都是支持共和党的
in the country, fastest growing in percentile term
这些国内增长百分比最高的县
and that has something to do with transplant
与人口移居有着某种关联
It's very interesting argument by Bill Bishop
这是一个很有趣的观点，是Bill Bishop提出的
and cause the great sort
这造成了不同类型的人住在不同地方
Americans are sorting themselves out, by moving/wanting to move to areas
通过移居到某个地方，相似特征的美国人聚居到同一地区
to some extent, where they feel comfortable
因为某个程度上，他们倾向于移居到令他们舒适的地方
and that can include political comfortable as well
这种"舒适"当然也包括政见上的认同感
So he had argued, we will see a lot more of this kind polarization as we go on
所以根据他的观点，我们会看到更多由移居引起的分化现象
Yes! in general, yes
请提问！总体来说，是这样的
The question is wealthy people are more likely to vote
他的问题是富人是否更乐于参加投票
Yes, that's very definite trend
是的，这个趋势非常明显
Although there are also lots of voter registration strive to try to even that out
尽管很多选民登记处都想尽力掩盖这种趋势
but there's pretty good correlation with that factor as well
但富人的确更愿意参与到投票当中
Thanks for your input, I really do appreciate it
很谢谢你的补充
I think I may have done enough here on this issue
我想收入因素我已经解释得差不多了
Let me move on and talk about the map again
让我们继续，继续聊聊那幅地图
Go back to this great red and blue map again
回到这幅红蓝地图的讨论上来
Accepting that as true but maybe not
先假设这幅地图反映的是真实情况，不过它也有可能不真实
All maps conceal, right
所有地图都会隐藏一些事实
There's really interesting book by Mark S. Monmonier Mark
写过一本很有趣的书
"how to lie with maps"
叫做"如何用地图说谎"
One of his arguments is we are always in the way lying with maps
他的一个观点就是我们经常会用地图来说谎
because maps are showing some things but they are leaving a lot out
因为地图在表现某些特征的同时，也忽略了很多其它事实
depending on the categories you choose
这取决于你选择的是怎样的一组数据
You can show some very different things
不同的选择会使地图呈现出不同结果
